Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
SentinelOne Inc (S)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$23.49+1.64%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.47 → 0.47 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 20 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 19 to 20; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for S yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating income near $120 million in fiscal 2027 | The company plans to improve profit with operating income near $120 million. | Intact | Operating income falls below $80 million in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 3, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented cybersecurity business with elevated risk, not yet a proven profitable compounder. The thesis is in a watch state: recent performance trails its industry cohort, and confidence has eased from high to medium.
S is valued at a premium to peers, with a durable-premium rationale, and the valuation is tagged as stretched. The expectations gap is 0.13, but the supplied evidence does not explain its scale in plain terms; the premium leaves less room for weak execution than a peer-level valuation would.
Near term, revenue and ARR growth remain solid: Q3 revenue grew 21% year over year and ARR grew 22%, while non-GAAP operating margin improved to 10%. GAAP operating losses remain substantial, recent financial performance is rated weak, and the company missed its most recent quarter; AI product progress is not established by the supplied figures.
The multi-year thesis hinges on sustaining growth while reducing GAAP losses, and on whether AI-driven cybersecurity investment produces measurable customer or revenue gains. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while Fed rate cuts or stabilization among major technology companies could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, S offers a growth story with improving non-GAAP margins, but its premium valuation and persistent GAAP losses make execution the central test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Restructuring should cut costs and boost efficiency. |
| Improving |
| Restructuring fails to improve efficiency or causes growth harm |
Record operating margins vs qualitative target Record operating margins and strong FY27 guidance support restructuring success, offsetting concerns from new convertible debt. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches about $1.2 billion in fiscal 2027 | SentinelOne aims to grow revenue to about $1.2 billion in FY27. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1.0 billion in FY27 | Revenue: $291.981M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.2B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 28, 2026291,981,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.50 → $0.47 · observed estimates
$1.41B → $1.42B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.50 | $1,411,883,179 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.50 | $1,411,883,179 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.50 | $1,411,872,989 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.50 | $1,411,872,989 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.50 | $1,411,872,989 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.50 | $1,411,872,989 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.50 | $1,411,872,989 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.50 | $1,411,872,989 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.50 | $1,411,872,989 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.50 | $1,411,872,989 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.50 | $1,411,872,989 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.50 | $1,411,872,989 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.50 | $1,411,872,989 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.50 | $1,411,872,989 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.50 | $1,411,872,989 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.50 | $1,411,872,989 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.50 | $1,411,872,989 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.50 | $1,411,872,989 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.57 | $1,412,327,600 | 14 / 34 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.50 | $1,411,872,989 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.50 | $1,411,872,989 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.50 | $1,411,872,989 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.50 | $1,411,872,989 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.50 | $1,411,872,989 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.50 | $1,411,872,989 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.50 | $1,411,591,433 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.50 | $1,411,591,433 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.50 | $1,411,438,567 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.50 | $1,411,438,567 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.50 | $1,411,438,567 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.50 | $1,411,438,777 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.50 | $1,411,438,567 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.50 | $1,411,438,567 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.49 | $1,412,864,122 | 13 / 25 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.47 | $1,418,453,040 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.47 | $1,418,453,040 | 13 / 26 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.47 | $1,418,701,525 | 12 / 26 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.47 | $1,418,762,131 | 12 / 26 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.47 | $1,418,762,131 | 12 / 26 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.47 | $1,418,762,131 | 12 / 26 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.47 | $1,418,762,131 | 12 / 26 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.47 | $1,418,762,131 | 12 / 26 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.47 | $1,418,762,131 | 12 / 26 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.47 | $1,418,762,131 | 12 / 26 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.47 | $1,418,867,198 | 12 / 26 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.47 | $1,418,868,326 | 12 / 26 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.47 | $1,418,868,326 | 12 / 26 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.47 | $1,418,935,952 | 12 / 25 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.47 | $1,418,935,952 | 12 / 25 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.47 | $1,418,935,952 | 12 / 25 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.47 | $1,418,935,952 | 12 / 25 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.47 | $1,418,935,958 | 12 / 25 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.47 | $1,418,929,140 | 12 / 25 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.47 | $1,418,929,140 | 12 / 25 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.47 | $1,418,929,140 | 12 / 25 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.47 | $1,418,929,134 | 12 / 25 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.47 | $1,418,929,134 | 12 / 25 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.47 | $1,418,929,134 | 12 / 25 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.47 | $1,418,929,134 | 12 / 25 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.47 | $1,418,929,134 | 12 / 25 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.47 | $1,418,929,134 | 12 / 25 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.47 | $1,418,929,134 | 12 / 25 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.47 | $1,418,929,134 | 12 / 25 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.47 | $1,418,929,134 | 12 / 25 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.47 | $1,418,929,134 | 12 / 25 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.47 | $1,418,929,134 | 12 / 25 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.47 | $1,418,929,134 | 12 / 25 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.47 | $1,418,929,134 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.47 | $1,418,929,137 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.47 | $1,418,929,137 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.47 | $1,418,929,137 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.47 | $1,418,929,137 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.47 | $1,418,929,137 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.47 | $1,418,929,137 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.47 | $1,418,929,137 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.47 | $1,418,929,137 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.47 | $1,418,929,137 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.47 | $1,418,929,137 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.47 | $1,418,929,137 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.47 | $1,418,929,137 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.47 | $1,418,877,094 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.47 | $1,418,877,094 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.47 | $1,418,877,094 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.47 | $1,418,877,094 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.47 | $1,418,877,094 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.47 | $1,418,877,094 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.47 | $1,418,877,094 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.47 | $1,418,877,094 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.47 | $1,418,877,094 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.47 | $1,418,878,262 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.47 | $1,418,822,009 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.47 | $1,418,822,009 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.47 | $1,418,822,009 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.47 | $1,418,822,009 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.47 | $1,418,829,041 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.47 | $1,418,830,285 | 19 / 25 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.47 | $1,418,830,285 | 20 / 25 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.47 | $1,418,830,285 | 20 / 25 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.47 | $1,418,830,285 | 20 / 25 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.47 | $1,418,830,285 | 20 / 25 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.47 | $1,418,823,252 | 20 / 25 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.47 | $1,418,823,252 | 20 / 25 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 18 Buy / Strong Buy · 16 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.