Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Sabre (SABR)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.68-3.45%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.18 → 0.17 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SABR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successful launch of AI-powered travel solutions | A supporting condition in Sabre's published investment case. The stated target is Launch AI-powered travel solutions successfully. | Improving | Failure to launch or gain traction with AI solutions | Qualitative: AI investment increasing, no launch failure Sabre anticipates ~$600M 2026 pro forma adjusted EBITDA while increasing AI investment. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk recovery and execution story, not yet a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent financial performance strong, while earnings quality remains loss-making and management execution is viewed as volatile.
SABR is described as cheap versus peers, but confidence in that valuation assessment is low. The expectations gap is slightly negative, and the pricing signal is judged justified with low fragility, so the evidence does not suggest that the market is relying on unusually fragile assumptions.
Near-term results show progress: second-quarter revenue grew 4% year on year and normalized Adjusted EBITDA rose 19%. Management raised its full-year 2026 EBITDA and free cash flow guidance, while Marketplace revenue growth remains a stated priority; the latest quarter was still missed, and free cash flow guidance remains negative. AI initiatives are a strategic focus, but their financial impact is not yet quantified.
Over the next few quarters, reaffirming the recently raised guidance would support management credibility; a guidance cut would weaken it. Sector bellwether results may affect the near-term backdrop, while the multi-year case also depends on continued Marketplace growth and whether AI offerings produce measurable results. Recent agreement termination and litigation add risks, but the evidence gives little detail on their business impact.
The 1-to-3-year view is mildly favorable but remains execution-dependent: recent operating progress supports the thesis, while losses, elevated risk, and management credibility are key uncertainties. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Sabre's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY marketplace revenue growth. |
| Broken |
| Marketplace revenue growth falls below 5% in FY26 |
Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate segment_revenue_yoy_pct from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Meet full-year 2026 EBITDA and free cash flow guidance | The company keeps its 2026 profit and cash flow goals. | Improving | Fail to meet 2026 EBITDA or free cash flow guidance | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Additionally, we are raising our 2026 guidance for Pro Forma Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow.” “Given our strong first-quarter performance and current outlook, we are reaffirming our full-year guidance for Pro Forma Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue grows at least 4% in next 12 months | A primary condition in Sabre's published investment case. The stated target is >=4% YoY revenue growth. | Improving | YoY revenue growth falls below 4% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 3.61% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=4% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20263.610862 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Additionally, we are raising our 2026 guidance for Pro Forma Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow.” “Given our strong first-quarter performance and current outlook, we are reaffirming our full-year guidance for Pro Forma Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.14 → $0.17 · observed estimates
$3.00B → $3.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.14 | $3,003,120,900 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.14 | $3,003,120,900 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.14 | $3,003,120,900 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.14 | $3,003,120,900 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.14 | $3,003,120,900 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.14 | $3,001,813,740 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.11 | $2,992,281,915 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.14 | $3,001,813,740 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.11 | $2,992,281,915 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.14 | $3,007,546,180 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.11 | $2,990,451,895 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.11 | $2,990,451,895 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.14 | $3,007,546,180 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.14 | $3,007,546,180 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.14 | $3,007,546,180 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.11 | $2,996,210,084 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.14 | $3,007,546,180 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.11 | $2,996,210,084 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.15 | $3,011,112,840 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.11 | $2,996,210,084 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.11 | $2,996,210,084 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.11 | $2,996,210,084 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.11 | $2,996,210,084 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.11 | $2,996,210,084 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.11 | $2,996,210,084 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.15 | $3,002,555,209 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.15 | $3,002,555,209 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.15 | $3,002,555,209 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.15 | $3,002,555,209 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.15 | $3,002,555,209 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.15 | $3,002,550,384 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.15 | $3,002,550,384 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.15 | $3,002,550,384 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.15 | $3,002,550,384 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.16 | $3,004,455,166 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.16 | $3,004,455,166 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.16 | $3,004,455,166 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.16 | $3,004,455,166 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.16 | $3,004,455,166 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.16 | $3,004,455,166 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.16 | $3,004,455,166 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.16 | $3,004,455,166 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.16 | $3,004,455,166 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.16 | $3,004,455,166 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.16 | $3,004,455,166 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.16 | $3,004,455,166 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.16 | $3,004,455,166 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.18 | $3,005,511,740 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.18 | $3,005,511,740 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.18 | $3,005,511,740 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.18 | $3,005,511,740 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.18 | $3,005,511,740 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.18 | $3,005,511,740 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.18 | $3,005,511,740 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.18 | $3,005,511,740 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.18 | $3,005,511,740 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.18 | $3,005,511,740 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.18 | $3,005,511,740 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.18 | $3,005,511,740 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.18 | $3,005,511,740 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.18 | $3,005,511,740 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.18 | $3,005,511,740 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.18 | $3,005,511,740 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.18 | $3,005,511,740 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.18 | $3,005,511,740 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.18 | $3,005,511,740 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.18 | $3,005,511,740 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.18 | $3,005,511,740 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.18 | $3,005,511,740 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.18 | $3,005,511,740 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.18 | $3,005,511,740 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.18 | $3,005,511,740 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.18 | $3,005,511,740 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.18 | $3,005,511,740 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.18 | $3,004,111,740 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.18 | $3,004,111,740 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.18 | $3,004,111,740 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.17 | $3,002,599,724 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.17 | $3,002,599,724 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.17 | $3,002,599,724 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.17 | $3,002,599,724 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.17 | $3,002,599,724 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.17 | $3,002,599,724 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.17 | $3,002,599,724 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.17 | $3,002,599,724 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.17 | $3,002,599,724 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.17 | $3,002,599,724 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.17 | $3,002,599,724 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.17 | $3,002,599,724 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.17 | $3,002,599,724 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.17 | $3,002,599,724 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.17 | $3,002,599,724 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.17 | $3,002,599,724 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.17 | $3,002,599,724 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.17 | $3,002,599,724 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.17 | $3,002,599,724 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.17 | $3,002,599,724 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.17 | $3,002,599,724 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.17 | $3,002,599,724 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.17 | $3,002,599,724 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.17 | $3,002,599,724 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.17 | $3,002,599,724 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.