Sabre (SABR)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.74+4.19%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SABR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -57.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 62.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SABR — M&A activity — Termination of Material Definitive Agreement
Dated 2026-10-14
Termination of Material Definitive Agreement. The disclosure set forth in
Why it matters: Sabre reported positive free cash flow in Q2, but still guided to a $65 million loss for 2026.
Watch forSabre reports positive free cash flow in Q3 and keeps its full-year guide near negative $65 million.
Also watch forSabre reports negative Q3 free cash flow and lowers its full-year guide below negative $65 million.
Why it matters: Marketplace made up most Q2 revenue and grew 6%. A slower pace could weaken the growth story.
Watch forQ3 Marketplace revenue grows more than 6% year over year.
Also watch forQ3 Marketplace revenue grows less than 6% year over year, or falls.
Why it matters: The tender results depend on financing and other conditions. Completion would confirm this debt plan moved forward.
Watch forA company filing confirms payment for the accepted 2029 notes, up to the $250 million cap.
Also watch forSabre GLBL terminates the tender, extends it, or does not complete payment.
Why it matters: Air bookings drive Marketplace revenue. Q2 bookings rose about 1% year over year.
Watch forQ3 air distribution bookings grow at a low-single-digit rate or faster from a year ago.
Also watch forQ3 air distribution bookings decline year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$277 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $806 loss on $10,000 · 8.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,912 loss on $10,000 · 59.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Sabre posted 19% EBITDA growth in Q2 and raised its full-year outlook. Q3 tests whether that pace lasts.
Watch forQ3 Pro Forma Adjusted EBITDA is above $155 million, the company’s Q3 guide.
Also watch forQ3 Pro Forma Adjusted EBITDA is below $155 million.