Sabre (SABR)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.13+3.40%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SABR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -78.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 81.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 68 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SABR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
of Form 8-K and the attached exhibit shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Sabre makes reference to non-GAAP financial measures in the press release. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measu…
Why it matters: Growth in air distribution bookings is key for Sabre's revenue and market position.
Supportive ifQ3 air distribution bookings had low single-digit growth compared to last year.
Worry ifQ3 air distribution bookings were flat or dropped compared to last year.
Why it matters: Better Free Cash Flow shows the company is managing cash well. It shows financial stability.
Supportive ifQ3 Free Cash Flow reported closer to $0 or positive.
Worry ifQ3 Free Cash Flow reported worse than -$70 million.
Why it matters: This will indicate how investors view the debt issuance and its effects on equity.
Watch forSabre's stock price goes up a lot after the new exchangeable notes are issued.
Also watch forSabre's stock price goes down or stays the same after the new exchangeable notes.
Why it matters: Issuing these notes may change Sabre's financial options and stock price.
Watch forStock price stays the same or goes up after issuing the $150 million notes.
Also watch forStock price drops a lot after issuing the $150 million notes.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$277 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $813 loss on $10,000 · 8.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,250 loss on $10,000 · 62.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is important for Sabre's performance. It also affects its market position.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue exceeds $760.3 million, indicating strong growth.
Worry ifQ2 revenue falls below $760.3 million, suggesting weak growth.
Why it matters: Sabre's growth in operating income shows it is making more money.
Supportive ifOperating income for Q2 is over $115.9 million. This shows continued growth.
Worry ifOperating income for Q2 is below $115.9 million. This shows a slowdown.
Why it matters: The result could change Sabre's finances and how investors feel.
Worry ifThe lawsuit ends well for Sabre, lowering legal risks.
Less concerning ifThe lawsuit leads to a big financial penalty or bad ruling for Sabre.
Why it matters: Growth in air distribution bookings is key for Sabre's recovery and success.
Supportive ifAir distribution bookings grow at least 5% year-over-year in Q2 2026.
Worry ifAir distribution bookings dropped from last year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The buyback program may help shareholders. It shows confidence in future growth.
Supportive ifThe share price or earnings per share may rise after the buyback announcement.
Worry ifNo significant change in share price or earnings per share after the buyback announcement.
Why it matters: Completion of the buyback signals confidence in the company's value and can support share price.
Supportive ifThe buyback program is complete or there are big share repurchases.
Worry ifNo progress on the buyback or cancellation of the program shows lack of confidence.
Why it matters: This guidance will show if Sabre can maintain its growth momentum. A strong EBITDA forecast supports confidence in the company's financial health.
Supportive ifQ3 Pro Forma Adjusted EBITDA guidance is about $155 million or more.
Worry ifQ3 Pro Forma Adjusted EBITDA guidance is less than $150 million.
Why it matters: Consistent growth in Marketplace revenue shows Sabre's ability to increase its market share. This is key for long-term success.
Supportive ifMarketplace revenue growth of at least 6% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifMarketplace revenue growth falls below 4% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Updates on the buyback program show management cares about shareholders. This can help stock prices.
Watch forAnnouncement of a timeline or amount for the share buyback program.
Also watch forNo updates or delays in the share buyback program execution.