Reading SAFE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SAFE free→Reading SAFE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SAFE free→NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, indicating challenges in the broader market. Peer multiples imply a price about 27% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $15.81. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $16 SAFE trades at 10× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $22 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 27% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.27x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated fragile grew net income 35% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.42 → $0.41 (-2.2% / 30d). 2 raised, 3 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 45% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$140.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$307.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,290.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows a commitment to paying shareholders. It shows management trusts cash flow is stable.
Confirms:Dividend per share remains at $0.177 for the next quarter.
Disproves:If the dividend per share drops below $0.177, it shows financial trouble.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SAFE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events Safehold Inc. (the “Company” or “Safehold”), announced yesterday that it has formed a joint venture (the “venture”) with a Brookfield affiliate (“Brookfield”) on a portfolio of ground leases. The assets contributed by Safehold are diversified across the United States and generate current annualized cash ground rent of approximately $14 million. Brookfield will purchase a non-controlling 49% interest in the venture at a gross valuation of approximately $348 million. Safehold will…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Other Specialized REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SAFE Safehold, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | fair | moderate |
IRM Iron Mountain | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | full | moderate |
LAMR Lamar Advertising Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | full | low |
GLPI Gaming and Leisure Properties | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | full | low |
OUT Outfront Media | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Real Estate names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Commitment to maintaining a stable dividend per share for shareholders.
Focus on enhancing operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Why it matters: Exceeding this growth rate would show Safehold is improving its revenue momentum.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 7% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 7% year over year.
Why it matters: Better operating income means better cost management. It also means more profit.
Confirms:Operating income is higher than last quarter.
Disproves:Operating income is lower than last quarter.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows good money management. It also shows stability.
Confirms:A stable or higher dividend per share is announced.
Disproves:A lower dividend per share is announced.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Safehold Inc. issued an earnings release and made available on its website an earnings presentation for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the earnings release and earnings presentation are attached as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, hereto and incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report, including the exhibits hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” fo…
Other Events On March 31, 2023, Safehold Inc. (“Old SAFE”) merged with and into iStar Inc. (“iStar”), at which time Old SAFE ceased to exist, and iStar continued as the surviving corporation and changed its name to “Safehold” (the “Merger”). Unless context otherwise requires, “we” and “our” refers to Old SAFE prior to the merger and to Safehold Inc. (formerly known as iStar Inc.) and its consolidated subsidiaries following the consummation of the merger. Safehold Inc. conducts all of its busi…
The filing describes a shareholder-approved amendment to the long-term incentive plan, increasing the number of shares available for issuance.