Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
XCF Global, Inc. (SAFX)
NASDAQUtilitiesOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.10-5.76%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.05 → 0.03 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SAFX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve EBITDA of $65-70M by 2027 | A primary condition in XCF Global, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $65M EBITDA. | Intact | EBITDA falls below $65M in FY 2027 | Ebitda: $-5.756M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $65M EBITDA. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 17, 2026-5,756,117 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business, not yet a proven durable compounder. Its long-term thesis is on watch: the signal recently shifted from cautious to mixed, while recent performance remains weak and management execution is volatile.
SAFX is valued cheaply versus peers, with medium confidence in that comparison. The evidence does not specify exactly what growth expectations the market assumes, so the expectations gap is unclear; low fragility signals also suggest no identified concentration of pricing risk.
Near term, results may remain uneven: revenue rose from $348,688 in 2026-Q1 to $690,881 in 2026-Q2, consistent with early commercial activity, but the business has missed across recent quarters. New Rise Reno sales are starting, while the Paramount acquisition is still subject to closing conditions and broader partnership delivery remains limited.
The multi-year thesis depends on SAFX turning early fuel sales and acquisitions into sustained production and broader customer relationships. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; lower interest rates and continued strength at Utilities peers could provide a favorable sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SAFX remains a high-risk watch case: its low peer valuation contrasts with weak results and execution that has yet to establish a durable growth record. The thesis hinges on whether early commercial activity becomes consistent delivery. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in XCF Global, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is management volatility decreases and execution improves over next 4 quarters. |
| Under Pressure |
| management volatility remains high or worsens |
Qualitative: High volatility (cancelled meeting, merger delay, revenue miss) Cancelled Nov 9 meeting, postponed merger vote, and Q3 revenue shortfall indicate ongoing execution challenges and instability. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Produce 40-43 million gallons of renewable fuel by 2027 | It plans to produce 40-43 million gallons of renewable fuel by then. | Intact | production falls below 40 million gallons in FY 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve net revenue of $110-120M by 2027 | A primary condition in XCF Global, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $110M net revenue. | Intact | net revenue falls below $110M in FY 2027 | Revenue: $690,881 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $110M net revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 17, 2026690,881 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.03 → $0.03 · observed estimates
$0.12B → $0.12B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.03 | $115,909,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.03 | $115,909,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.03 | $115,909,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.03 | $115,909,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.03 | $115,909,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.03 | $115,909,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.05 | $111,818,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.03 | $122,092,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.03 | $122,092,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.03 | $122,092,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.03 | $122,092,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.03 | $122,092,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.03 | $122,092,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.03 | $122,092,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.03 | $122,092,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 13, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.