XCF Global, Inc. (SAFX)
NASDAQUtilitiesOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.10-5.76%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SAFX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -27.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
SAFX — divestiture
Dated 2026-10-22
of this Current Report on Form 8-K regarding related person transactions and interests in the Business Combination, is incorporated herein by reference. Appointment of President and Chief Financial Officer The Board appointed Wray T. Thorn, a member of the Board, as President and Chief Financial Officer (“CFO”) of the Company, effective October 19, 2026, to serve at the pleasure of the Board until his successor is duly elected and qualified or until his earlier death, resignation or removal.…
Why it matters: A restart would show that XCF can turn the new site into working fuel output. The plan also calls for about $30 million in restart spending.
Supportive ifXCF says Paramount restarted fuel production within 12 months of closing.
Worry ifXCF reports no restart within 12 months after closing, or reports a major delay or added restart cost.
Why it matters: Closing would add about 50 million gallons of planned yearly fuel capacity. A delay would push back the restart plan.
Supportive ifAn XCF filing or release confirms the Paramount deal closed by December 31, 2026.
Worry ifThe deal remains open after December 31, 2026, or XCF discloses that it ended.
Why it matters: The merger raised XCF's 2027 net revenue target. Reported Q2 revenue was $690,881, so future reports can show whether sales are building.
Supportive ifXCF reports 2027 net revenue of at least $120 million.
Worry ifXCF lowers its 2027 net revenue target below $120 million or reports 2027 net revenue below that level.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$384 on $10,000 · ±3.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,953 loss on $10,000 · 19.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,050 loss on $10,000 · 90.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.