Boston Beer Company (SAM)
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - AlcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-04
$168.78-1.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - AlcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SAM
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $169 SAM trades at 23× p/e — 1.4× the 17× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $214 fair value is medium-confidence here. Analysts target $169–$295. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $192.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $760.95 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $786.59 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $107.32 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$169.00 – $295.00 (median $192.50) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-07-27
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $38.03 |
| 11.7 |
| 1.06 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $316.48 | 15.9 | 19.89 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $156.42 | 15.8 | 9.90 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $158.66 | 0.9 | 185.89 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $250.00 | 33.7 | 7.42 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $73.31 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $125.07 | 16.8 | 7.44 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $481.32 | 15.9 | 30.25 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $268.93 | 15.8 | 17.02 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $157.72 | 0.9 | 184.79 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $573.46 | 33.7 | 17.02 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $636.55 | 15.9 | 40.01 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $267.86 | 15.8 | 16.95 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $157.09 | 0.9 | 184.06 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $571.20 | 33.7 | 16.95 | Analyst | medium |