Boston Beer Company (SAM)
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - AlcoholicSnapshot 2026-11-05
$224.97-1.47%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - AlcoholicSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SAM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 22.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SAM — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-20
CFO — Diego Reynoso: The CFO is stepping down but an internal successor (Interim CFO) has been appointed to ensure an orderly transition, indicating a planned succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Depletions fell 5% in Q3, and management is focused on market share. A smaller decline would show better demand.
Supportive ifQ4 depletions decline less than 5% year over year, or turn positive.
Worry ifQ4 depletions fall 5% or more year over year again.
Why it matters: The recorded judgment and interest total $191 million before new interest. A court ruling or payment could affect cash and reported earnings.
Watch forThe company reports a lower judgment, less interest, or a court decision in its favor.
Also watch forA court upholds the judgment, or the company reports a payment or higher interest cost.
Why it matters: Q3 gross margin rose 90 basis points to 51.7%. Management sees the biggest yearly margin gain in Q4, in part from lower shortfall fees.
Supportive ifQ4 gross margin is higher than Q4 2025, and full-year margin is at least 49%.
Worry ifQ4 gross margin is flat or lower than Q4 2025, or full-year margin falls below 49%.
Why it matters: Sun Cruiser and Angry Orchard grew in Q3, while Twisted Tea, Truly, and Samuel Adams declined. Continued growth could help narrow the volume drop.
Supportive ifThe next results show Sun Cruiser and Angry Orchard growing, with total depletions down less than 5%.
Worry ifSun Cruiser and Angry Orchard stop growing, or total depletions fall 5% or more.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$142 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $421 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,806 loss on $10,000 · 38.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The company raised the low end of its earnings range. Results below that range would weaken the case that cost savings can offset falling volume.
Watch forFull-year non-GAAP EPS is at least $9.00 and no more than $10.50.
Also watch forFull-year non-GAAP EPS is below $9.00 or above $10.50.