Boston Beer Company (SAM)
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - AlcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-04
$168.78-1.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - AlcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SAM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -21.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers
SAM — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-20
CFO — Diego Reynoso: The CFO is stepping down but an internal successor (Interim CFO) has been appointed to ensure an orderly transition, indicating a planned succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Growth in the consumer staples sector could help Boston Beer Company.
Watch forConsumer staples revenue growth picks back up above 5% year over year.
Also watch forConsumer staples revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Starting the buyback program may show trust in the company's financial health.
Supportive ifThe company buys back shares as planned starting June 29, 2026.
Worry ifThe company delays or cancels the share buyback program.
Why it matters: When the litigation is resolved, it could affect cash flow and financial health. This cost is important.
Worry ifA timeline for resolving the litigation shows it will happen in the next 6 months.
Less concerning ifNo timeline is provided, or the resolution is delayed beyond 6 months.
Why it matters: Higher litigation costs can lower earnings. This may hurt how investors feel.
Worry ifLitigation expenses impact EPS by more than $14.73.
Less concerning ifLitigation expenses impact EPS by less than $14.73.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$180 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $443 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,806 loss on $10,000 · 38.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The new CFO's plan may change future money strategies and investor trust.
Watch forThe new CFO gave updated financial guidance. It shows good changes.
Also watch forNew CFO maintains or lowers previous financial guidance.
Why it matters: More cash flow shows better money management and helps growth plans.
Supportive ifCash from operating activities goes up year over year in the Q2 earnings report.
Worry ifCash from operating activities goes down year over year in the Q2 earnings report.
Why it matters: Completion shows trust in cash flow and how money is used.
Supportive ifCompany completes the $25M Class A Common Stock repurchase program.
Worry ifNo further share repurchases announced by the end of Q3.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means better cost control. This leads to more money.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income is better than the -$190.455 million from Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ2 operating income is still going down or stays negative.
Why it matters: News about the supplier dispute can change financial results. It can also affect investor feelings.
Watch forThe company shares positive news about the supplier legal case.
Also watch forThe company reports more legal problems or higher costs.
Why it matters: Completing the buyback shows the company cares about shareholders. This can help the stock price.
Supportive ifThe company completes the $25 million share buyback by the end of September 2026.
Worry ifThe buyback program is extended or reduced in size.
Why it matters: Updates on the buyback show management wants to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of buybacks that total at least $25 million.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the buyback program.
Why it matters: The result of this lawsuit could greatly affect financial results.
Worry ifThe company gives a good update or settlement about the lawsuit.
Less concerning ifThe company reports more legal costs or bad rulings in the lawsuit.
Why it matters: A bigger drop in depletions shows weak demand for Boston Beer products.
Worry ifQ3 depletions decrease more than 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 depletions remain flat or improve year over year.
Why it matters: A better gross margin means lower costs and better pricing during inflation.
Supportive ifGross margin exceeds 50% in Q3.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 48.5% in Q3.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show management's trust in the company's value and finances.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $25 million in Q3.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $10 million in Q3.
Why it matters: The result of this lawsuit could greatly affect financial results and cash flow.
Watch forManagement gives good news about solving issues or having less debt.
Also watch forManagement shares bad news about a ruling or having more debt.