Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp
Boston Beer Company (SAM)
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - AlcoholicSnapshot 2026-11-05
$224.97-1.47%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - AlcoholicSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
10.25 → 10.36 EPS · FY ending Dec 27, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SAM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Repurchase up to $25M of Class A Common Stock in mid-2026 | It plans to repurchase up to $25 million of Class A stock, showing capital discipline. | Intact | Repurchase plan is cancelled or materially reduced | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 5 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Litigation expenses of $1.8 million, related to the supplier dispute, represents post-judgment interest expense.” “Post-judgement interest expense through the appeals process will be applied to the combined pre-tax total of the judgement and pre-judgement interest amounts of $191.0 million at the statutory rate, which is estimated to be 3.79%.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical business with a turnaround-like execution story, not a proven steady compounder. The thesis is in a watch state, with medium confidence, as margin progress is offset by weaker sales and mixed execution.
SAM trades at a substantial premium to peers, and the evidence labels that valuation as justified, with no major fragility warning. The expectations gap is modest, so the market appears to reflect a re-rating rather than a large gap between expectations and the business evidence.
Near term, recent results are mixed: the October earnings report was a beat after a July miss, while third-quarter revenue and depletions declined year over year. Gross margin improved, supported in part by procurement savings and brewery efficiencies, but weaker shipments and a history of recent misses temper confidence in execution.
The multi-year view depends on management turning its repeated market-share and execution priorities into better revenue and depletion trends while sustaining margin gains. Near term, a reversal of recently raised guidance would damage credibility; weakening employment could pressure cyclical demand, while strength at sector peers could support the broader sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SAM’s thesis remains conditional: margin and supply-chain progress are real, but sustained improvement in sales and execution is not yet established. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Cash from operating activities improves from -$20.4M in Q1 2026 | A primary condition in Boston Beer Company's published investment case. The stated target is Cash from operations positive by FY26. | Under Pressure | Cash from operations remains negative through FY26 | Cash from operations: $76.627M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations positive by FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 22, 202676,627,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Gross margin near 48-50% in FY26 | The company targets gross margins near 48-50% in FY26. | Under Pressure | Gross margin falls below 48% in FY26 | Gross margin: 51.74% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Gross margin >=48% and <=50% in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 22, 202651.735721 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improves from -$190.5M in Q1 2026 | Boston Beer aims to improve operating income from a loss of $190.5M in Q1 2026. | Broken | Operating income remains negative or worsens through FY26 | Operating income: $56.329M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income improves to at least break-even by FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 22, 202656,329,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$10.75 → $10.36 · observed estimates
$1.96B → $1.91B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $10.75 | $1,959,602,514 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $10.75 | $1,959,602,514 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $10.35 | $1,923,943,986 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $10.35 | $1,923,943,986 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $10.35 | $1,923,943,986 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $10.35 | $1,923,943,986 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,804 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,804 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,804 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,804 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,804 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,804 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,804 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,804 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,804 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,804 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,804 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,804 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,804 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,804 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,804 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,804 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,804 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,804 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,804 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,822 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,822 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,822 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,822 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,822 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,822 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,822 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,822 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,822 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,822 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,822 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,822 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,822 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,822 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,822 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,822 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,822 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,822 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,822 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,822 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,822 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,822 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,822 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,822 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,822 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $10.30 | $1,920,451,822 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $10.25 | $1,919,729,631 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $10.25 | $1,919,729,631 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $10.25 | $1,919,729,631 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $10.25 | $1,919,729,631 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $10.25 | $1,919,729,631 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $10.25 | $1,919,729,631 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $10.25 | $1,919,729,631 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $10.25 | $1,919,729,631 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $10.25 | $1,919,729,631 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $10.25 | $1,919,729,631 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $10.25 | $1,919,729,631 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $10.25 | $1,919,729,631 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $10.25 | $1,919,729,631 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $10.25 | $1,919,729,631 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $10.25 | $1,919,729,631 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $10.25 | $1,919,729,631 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $10.25 | $1,919,729,631 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $10.25 | $1,919,729,631 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $10.25 | $1,919,729,631 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $10.25 | $1,919,729,631 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $10.25 | $1,919,729,631 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $10.25 | $1,919,729,631 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $10.24 | $1,919,024,995 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $10.13 | $1,917,115,904 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $10.13 | $1,917,115,904 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $10.13 | $1,917,115,904 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $10.13 | $1,917,115,904 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $10.13 | $1,917,115,904 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $10.13 | $1,917,115,904 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $10.13 | $1,917,115,904 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $10.12 | $1,916,593,596 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $10.12 | $1,916,593,596 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $10.12 | $1,916,593,596 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $10.12 | $1,914,767,163 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $10.12 | $1,914,767,163 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $10.12 | $1,914,767,163 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $10.12 | $1,914,767,163 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $10.10 | $1,914,558,313 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $10.05 | $1,913,916,646 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $10.39 | $1,911,099,590 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $10.39 | $1,911,099,590 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $10.39 | $1,911,099,590 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $10.39 | $1,911,099,590 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $10.35 | $1,908,553,436 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $10.36 | $1,909,769,381 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $10.36 | $1,909,769,381 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $10.36 | $1,909,787,519 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $10.36 | $1,909,787,519 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $10.36 | $1,909,787,519 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $10.36 | $1,909,787,519 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $10.36 | $1,909,787,519 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-05 | $10.36 | $1,909,787,519 | 8 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 3 recorded
3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.