Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
StandardAero (SARO)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$25.30-1.59%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.78 → 1.77 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SARO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow reaches at least $270 million in 2026 | The company plans free cash flow of $270M-$300M, showing better cash generation. | Intact | Free cash flow falls below $200 million in FY26 | Free cash flow: $51.277M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $270 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 202651,277,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an industrials growth-and-execution case, rather than a clear turnaround or a low-risk compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, though recent signals have softened and the risk label has moved to elevated.
SARO is described as cheap versus peers, while the overall priced-in assessment is justified and fragility is low. The expectations gap is negative, but the evidence does not explain its scale, so what the market assumes is only partly clear.
Near-term results show progress: revenue grew in 2025, management raised 2026 revenue guidance, and operating income and adjusted EBITDA margin have improved. Free cash flow guidance also increased, but quarterly cash flow has been volatile; a recent history of a deep miss and the COO transition add risk.
The multi-year case depends on management sustaining revenue growth and operating improvement while delivering the higher free cash flow guidance. Near term, a reversal of the recent guidance increase would hurt credibility, while results and guidance from industrial bellwethers could either support or weaken the sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the business evidence supports an intact thesis, but fragile earnings quality, elevated risk, and a headwind sector backdrop call for attention to execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Leadership is stable with a smooth CEO transition. |
| Under Pressure |
| Significant strategic changes or leadership issues arise post-CEO transition |
Qualitative: COO departure (Sep 2026) + military delays (Oct 2026) vs stable direction target COO transition event and Susquehanna price target cut on military delays signal execution risks post-CEO change. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income grows to at least $143.1 million in Q1 2026 | Profit margins improve as operating income rose from $128.9M to $143.1M in Q1 2026. | Improving | Operating income falls below $128.9 million in Q1 FY26 | Operating income: $168.483M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $143.1 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 2026168,483,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to at least $6.325 billion in 2026 | A primary condition in StandardAero's published investment case. The stated target is >= $6.325 billion. | Intact | Revenue falls below $6.05 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $1.6B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $6.325 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20261,599,693,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.60 → $1.77 · observed estimates
$7.07B → $7.08B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.60 | $7,069,721,911 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.48 | $7,032,626,760 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.48 | $7,032,626,760 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.48 | $7,032,626,760 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.48 | $7,032,626,760 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.48 | $7,032,626,760 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.48 | $7,032,626,760 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.48 | $7,032,626,760 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.59 | $7,069,216,623 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.48 | $7,032,626,760 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.48 | $7,032,626,760 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.59 | $7,069,216,623 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.59 | $7,069,216,623 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.48 | $7,032,626,760 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.59 | $7,069,216,621 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.48 | $7,032,604,990 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.59 | $7,069,216,621 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.59 | $7,069,216,621 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.59 | $7,069,216,621 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.59 | $7,069,216,621 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.59 | $7,069,216,621 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.59 | $7,069,216,621 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.59 | $7,069,216,621 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.59 | $7,069,216,621 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.59 | $7,069,216,621 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.50 | $7,099,671,379 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.50 | $7,099,671,379 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.50 | $7,100,644,304 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.50 | $7,100,655,228 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.50 | $7,100,655,228 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.50 | $7,100,655,220 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.50 | $7,100,655,220 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.50 | $7,100,655,220 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.50 | $7,100,655,220 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.50 | $7,100,655,220 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.50 | $7,100,655,220 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.50 | $7,100,655,220 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.50 | $7,100,655,220 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.50 | $7,100,655,220 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.50 | $7,100,655,220 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.50 | $7,100,655,228 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.50 | $7,100,655,228 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.50 | $7,100,655,228 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.50 | $7,100,655,228 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.50 | $7,100,655,228 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.79 | $7,100,655,228 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.79 | $7,100,655,228 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.79 | $7,100,655,228 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.79 | $7,100,655,228 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.79 | $7,100,655,228 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.79 | $7,100,655,228 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.79 | $7,100,655,228 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.79 | $7,096,687,903 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.79 | $7,096,687,903 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.79 | $7,096,687,903 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.79 | $7,096,687,903 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.79 | $7,096,687,903 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.79 | $7,096,687,903 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.79 | $7,096,687,903 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.79 | $7,096,687,903 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.79 | $7,096,687,903 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.79 | $7,096,687,903 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.78 | $7,099,549,442 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.78 | $7,099,549,442 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.78 | $7,099,549,442 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.78 | $7,099,549,442 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.78 | $7,099,549,442 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.78 | $7,099,912,600 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.78 | $7,098,774,138 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.78 | $7,098,774,138 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.78 | $7,098,774,138 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.78 | $7,098,774,138 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.78 | $7,098,774,138 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.78 | $7,098,774,138 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.78 | $7,094,533,284 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.78 | $7,094,767,917 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.78 | $7,094,767,917 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.78 | $7,094,767,917 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.78 | $7,094,767,917 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.78 | $7,094,767,917 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.78 | $7,094,767,917 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.78 | $7,094,767,917 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.78 | $7,094,767,917 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.78 | $7,094,767,917 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.77 | $7,094,383,665 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.77 | $7,094,383,665 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.77 | $7,088,728,280 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.77 | $7,088,728,280 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.77 | $7,088,728,280 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.77 | $7,088,728,280 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.77 | $7,088,728,280 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.77 | $7,087,882,126 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.77 | $7,087,882,126 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.77 | $7,087,882,126 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.77 | $7,087,882,126 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.77 | $7,084,743,665 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.77 | $7,084,743,665 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.77 | $7,084,743,665 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.77 | $7,084,743,665 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.77 | $7,084,743,665 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.77 | $7,084,743,665 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.77 | $7,084,743,665 | 8 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.