StandardAero (SARO)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$24.81+0.69%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SARO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -22.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 9.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 32.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SARO — CEO transition
Dated 2026-06-02
Chief Executive Officer — Russell Ford: Russell Ford is retiring as CEO and will be succeeded by Paul McElhinney.
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth could signal weakening demand across key markets.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth was less than 10% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 revenue growth was more than 10% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company maintains its growth trajectory.
Watch forEarnings per share exceeds $0.40 for Q2 2026.
Also watch forEarnings per share falls below $0.30 for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change company plans and how it operates.
Watch forNew CEO Paul McElhinney outlines a clear strategic vision that aligns with growth targets.
Also watch forNew CEO Paul McElhinney fails to communicate a clear strategy or vision.
Why it matters: A slowdown in military revenue growth may show problems in the industry. This could affect overall performance.
Worry ifMilitary and helicopter revenue growth was less than 5% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifMilitary and helicopter revenue growth was more than 5% compared to last year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$175 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $364 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,732 loss on $10,000 · 27.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management has raised revenue guidance many times. More increases show strong demand.
Supportive ifManagement raises 2026 revenue guidance to more than $6,500 million.
Worry ifNo changes to the revenue guidance or a decrease in guidance.
Why it matters: The new CEO's approach may change strategic priorities and focus. This could affect investor confidence.
Watch forNew CEO shares a strategic plan that matches past growth efforts.
Also watch forNew CEO moves focus away from current growth strategies and priorities.
Why it matters: Negative cash flow may show problems with managing money and running the business.
Worry ifFree cash flow guidance for 2026 remains negative or below $270 million.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow guidance for 2026 is raised above $300 million.
Why it matters: Changes in the industrial sector could affect StandardAero's growth. This is important for future planning.
Worry ifThe industrial sector shows signs of faster revenue growth.
Less concerning ifThe industrial sector keeps showing slower growth trends.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow shows better money handling and efficiency.
Supportive ifFree cash flow for Q2 2026 exceeds $270 million.
Worry ifFree cash flow remains negative or below $200 million.
Why it matters: Higher Free Cash Flow guidance would show strong cash generation and operational health.
Supportive ifManagement raises Free Cash Flow guidance above $300 million for 2026.
Worry ifFree Cash Flow guidance remains at or below $300 million.
Why it matters: Steady revenue growth shows strong demand and good progress in aerospace services.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 4.6% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 4.6% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow means good money management. It shows the company runs well.
Supportive ifFree cash flow remains positive, above $50 million in Q3.
Worry ifFree cash flow turns negative in Q3.
Why it matters: More growth in this area shows successful expansion and demand for repair services.
Supportive ifComponent Repair Services revenue grew more than 9.2% from last year.
Worry ifComponent Repair Services revenue grew less than 9.2% from last year.