Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
SBA Communications (SBAC)
NASDAQReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$195.48+5.84%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
8.33 → 8.15 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SBAC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capex near $440 million in 2026 | Capex is cut to $430-$450 million, focusing on new towers. | Intact | Capex rises above $450 million in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $62.419M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $430M to $450M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202662,419,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a real estate company with a growth-focused, execution-dependent multi-year thesis. The thesis is currently intact, and recent financial performance remains in the top half of its industry, but confidence in the evidence is medium.
SBAC trades at a premium to peers, while the evidence labels the expectations gap unjustified, meaning the valuation does not appear supported by the modeled expectations. Confidence in that valuation assessment is low, and the evidence does not provide a clear basis for calling the shares cheap or expensive beyond the peer premium.
Near term, management’s record of raising its 2026 revenue and AFFO per share outlook supports continued progress, and contributions from key customers are on track. However, company momentum fell sharply in the latest measure, capital spending discipline is mixed, and the industry has a history of earnings misses despite a recent earnings beat.
Over the next year, the thesis depends on management maintaining guidance and delivering steady customer contributions while keeping discretionary capital spending in focus. Fed rate cuts could support the real estate sector, while a guidance reduction or signs of weakness at sector peers could weaken the setup.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the long-term thesis remains intact, supported by higher guidance and steady customer contributions, but the premium valuation and weaker recent momentum leave execution as the key test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company has steady deals with Verizon, supporting growth. |
| Intact |
| Key customer contributions decline noticeably |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Full year 2026 revenue near $2.88 billion | A primary condition in SBA Communications's published investment case. The stated target is ~$2.88 billion. | Intact | Revenue falls below $2.81 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $715.274M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.88 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026715,274,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$8.01 → $8.15 · observed estimates
$2.94B → $2.91B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $8.01 | $2,939,216,980 | 9 / 17 |
| 2026-07-25 | $8.35 | $2,936,533,704 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $8.01 | $2,939,216,980 | 9 / 17 |
| 2026-07-27 | $8.01 | $2,939,216,980 | 9 / 17 |
| 2026-07-28 | $8.01 | $2,939,216,980 | 9 / 17 |
| 2026-07-29 | $8.09 | $2,939,216,980 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-07-30 | $8.09 | $2,939,216,980 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-07-31 | $8.35 | $2,936,533,704 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $8.35 | $2,936,533,704 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-02 | $8.09 | $2,939,216,980 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-03 | $8.09 | $2,939,216,980 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-08-04 | $8.32 | $2,933,682,427 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $8.11 | $2,936,833,570 | 9 / 17 |
| 2026-08-06 | $8.32 | $2,933,682,427 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $8.39 | $2,934,121,258 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $8.39 | $2,934,121,258 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $8.39 | $2,934,121,258 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $8.39 | $2,934,121,258 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $8.39 | $2,934,121,258 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $8.39 | $2,934,121,258 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $8.39 | $2,934,121,258 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $8.39 | $2,934,121,258 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $8.39 | $2,934,121,258 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $8.39 | $2,934,121,258 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $8.39 | $2,934,121,258 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $8.40 | $2,934,374,199 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $8.41 | $2,934,374,199 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $8.41 | $2,934,384,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $8.41 | $2,934,384,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $8.41 | $2,934,384,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $8.41 | $2,934,384,205 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $8.41 | $2,933,776,499 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $8.41 | $2,933,776,499 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $8.41 | $2,933,776,499 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $8.41 | $2,933,776,499 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $8.41 | $2,933,776,499 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | $8.41 | $2,933,776,499 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $8.41 | $2,932,817,675 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $8.41 | $2,932,817,675 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $8.41 | $2,932,817,675 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-04 | $8.41 | $2,932,817,675 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-05 | $8.41 | $2,932,817,675 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-06 | $8.39 | $2,932,817,675 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-07 | $8.39 | $2,932,817,675 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-08 | $8.39 | $2,932,817,675 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-09 | $8.39 | $2,932,817,675 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-10 | $8.39 | $2,932,817,675 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | $8.39 | $2,932,817,675 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | $8.39 | $2,932,817,675 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-13 | $8.39 | $2,932,817,675 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-14 | $8.39 | $2,932,817,675 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-15 | $8.39 | $2,932,120,871 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-16 | $8.39 | $2,935,447,490 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-17 | $8.39 | $2,935,447,490 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-18 | $8.39 | $2,935,447,490 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-19 | $8.39 | $2,935,447,490 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-20 | $8.39 | $2,935,447,490 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-21 | $8.39 | $2,935,447,490 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-22 | $8.39 | $2,935,447,490 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-23 | $8.37 | $2,935,514,703 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-24 | $8.37 | $2,935,514,703 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-25 | $8.37 | $2,935,514,703 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $8.37 | $2,935,514,703 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-27 | $8.33 | $2,936,617,771 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $8.33 | $2,936,617,771 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $8.33 | $2,936,617,771 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $8.37 | $2,935,514,703 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $8.33 | $2,935,514,703 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $8.33 | $2,935,514,703 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $8.33 | $2,935,514,703 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $8.33 | $2,935,514,703 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $8.33 | $2,935,514,703 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $8.33 | $2,935,514,703 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $8.33 | $2,935,209,203 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $8.33 | $2,935,209,203 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.33 | $2,935,320,314 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $8.33 | $2,935,320,314 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $8.33 | $2,935,320,314 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-12 | $8.33 | $2,935,320,314 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $8.33 | $2,935,320,314 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $8.33 | $2,935,320,314 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $8.33 | $2,935,320,314 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $8.29 | $2,935,936,981 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $8.29 | $2,935,936,981 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $8.29 | $2,923,655,225 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-19 | $8.29 | $2,923,655,225 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $8.25 | $2,924,078,496 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $8.25 | $2,924,078,496 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $8.25 | $2,924,078,496 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $8.25 | $2,924,078,496 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $8.25 | $2,924,078,496 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $8.25 | $2,924,078,496 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $8.25 | $2,924,078,496 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $8.25 | $2,924,078,496 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $8.25 | $2,924,078,496 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-29 | $8.25 | $2,924,078,496 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-30 | $8.25 | $2,924,078,496 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-31 | $8.25 | $2,936,022,940 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-01 | $8.25 | $2,936,022,940 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-02 | $8.25 | $2,936,022,940 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-03 | $8.23 | $2,925,135,996 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.15 | $2,909,017,548 | 8 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.