SBA Communications (SBAC)
NASDAQReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
$193.08-1.23%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SBAC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 26.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SBAC — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-09-25
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On September 25, 2026, SBA Communications Corporation (the “Company”) established a commercial paper program (the “Program”) pursuant to which it may issue from time to time short-term, unsecured, commercial paper notes (the “Notes”) in an aggregate principal amount outstanding at any one time not to exceed $2.5 billion. Amounts available under the program may be borrowed, repaid…
Why it matters: Q2 AFFO per share fell 3.8% from a year ago to $3.05. A higher Q3 result would show that cash flow is improving.
Supportive ifQ3 AFFO per share is above $3.05, the Q2 2026 result.
Worry ifQ3 AFFO per share is $3.05 or lower.
Why it matters: Management linked Auction 115 to future network deployments. New leases would show that carrier demand is turning into site revenue.
Supportive ifSBA reports new leases or site upgrades tied to carriers deploying spectrum from Auction 115.
Worry ifSBA reports no new leases or site upgrades tied to Auction 115 in its next quarterly update.
Why it matters: The $1.165 billion debt had an anticipated repayment date of November 9, 2026. Its new rate will affect interest costs.
Watch forSBA reports refinancing the $1.165 billion debt at a fixed rate of 5.25% or less.
Also watch forSBA reports a fixed rate above 5.25%, or says the debt was not refinanced by November 9, 2026.
Why it matters: SBA said its Millicom build work would grow through 2026. More completed towers would add sites and support future leasing.
Supportive ifSBA builds more than 109 towers in Q3, the Q2 count, and reports continued work for Millicom.
Worry ifSBA builds 109 towers or fewer in Q3, or reports that Millicom build work has slowed.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$124 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $307 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,938 loss on $10,000 · 29.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Domestic site leasing revenue fell year over year in both Q1 and Q2. A return to growth would ease concern about the U.S. business.
Supportive ifDomestic site leasing revenue exceeds the same quarter last year in the next reported quarter.
Worry ifDomestic site leasing revenue falls year over year for a third straight quarter.