SBA Communications (SBAC)
NASDAQReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$189.44-1.09%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SBAC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 19.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SBAC — debt issuance
Dated 2026-07-15
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement On July 14, 2026, SBA Communications Corporation (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement with Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, Barclays Capital Inc., Wells Fargo Securities, LLC and Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, as Representatives for the several Underwriters (the “Underwriters”), pursuant to which the Company agreed to issue and sell to the Underwriters $1,350,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 4.875% Senior Notes due 2030, $1,350,000,000…
Why it matters: Stable revenue from key customers is important for growth and financial health.
Supportive ifKey customer revenue stays stable or grows by at least 3% each quarter.
Worry ifKey customer revenue drops by more than 5% each quarter.
Why it matters: Successful purchases could increase revenue and help meet growth goals for 2026.
Supportive ifAll communication site purchases under contract are done by Q3 2026.
Worry ifAcquisitions are delayed or not completed by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A big drop in site development revenue means weaker growth in new projects.
Worry ifSite development revenue down year over year worse than -20%.
Less concerning ifSite development revenue stays the same or grows each year.
Why it matters: More spending might show plans for fast growth or money problems.
Watch forCash spending is over $475 million for 2026.
Also watch forCash spending is at or below $455 million for 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$127 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $303 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,286 loss on $10,000 · 22.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This shows if the international expansion plan is not working well.
Worry ifInternational site leasing revenue grew less than 30% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifInternational site leasing revenue grew more than 30% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Higher dividends show strong cash flow. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $1.25 per share.
Worry ifNo increase in the dividend or a decrease in the dividend payout.
Why it matters: Net income trends show overall profit and how well the company runs.
Worry ifNet income increases to over $200 million in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifNet income drops below $180 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in spending can affect growth and investment plans.
Watch forManagement plans to raise cash spending to over $450 million.
Also watch forManagement says they will spend less than $430 million on their capex plan.
Why it matters: A drop in AFFO per share shows pressure on cash flows and dividends.
Worry ifAFFO per share drops below $3.00.
Less concerning ifAFFO per share remains at or above $3.00.
Why it matters: More tower builds may show growth and better operations.
Supportive ifThey announced new tower builds from the Millicom deal.
Worry ifNo new updates or delays in tower builds in Central America.
Why it matters: A big drop in site leasing revenue may show customer loss or market problems.
Worry ifDomestic site leasing revenue down more than 2.3% YoY in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifDomestic site leasing revenue remains stable or grows YoY in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Doing this will make the balance sheet stronger. It will help future growth.
Supportive ifThe company said it issued $3.5 billion in senior notes. These notes are investment grade.
Worry ifNot completing the bond offering or having bad terms is a concern.
Why it matters: A raised outlook would show confidence in growth and improve investor sentiment.
Supportive ifManagement announces a full year 2026 revenue outlook increase of more than 5%.
Worry ifManagement keeps the full year 2026 outlook unchanged or lowers it.
Why it matters: This growth rate is a key indicator of overall demand in the sector. A decline could signal weakening customer activity.
Worry ifQ3 site leasing revenue growth prints below 3% year over year.
Less concerning ifSite leasing revenue growth exceeds 3% year over year.
Why it matters: More tower building shows strong demand and growth. This helps future revenue.
Supportive ifManagement says they built at least 50 new towers in Central America.
Worry ifNo updates on new tower building or delays in current projects.
Why it matters: A drop in AFFO guidance may mean operational issues. This could hurt dividend growth.
Worry ifManagement lowers AFFO per share guidance to below $11.95.
Less concerning ifAFFO per share guidance remains at or above $11.95.
Why it matters: A lower ratio shows better financial health and growth potential. This may attract investors.
Supportive ifNet debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio improves to below 6.0x.
Worry ifThe ratio remains above 6.4x.