Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Sinclair, Inc. (SBGI)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$14.10+4.68%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SBGI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Keep capital expenditures below $80 million in 2026 | The company keeps capital spending under $80 million. | Intact | capital expenditures exceed $80 million in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $20M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: <= $80 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 202620,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a media business with a mixed, execution-sensitive multi-year view, rather than a clear durable compounder. The thesis is intact, but profitability remains loss-making on the evidence snapshot and near-term earnings are uneven.
Valuation is tagged as stretched, with the peer comparison close to aligned and an expectations gap of 0.21. That points to limited room for execution to fall short, even though the market does not appear to be pricing in a major fragility concern.
Near term, political advertising is a source of support: second-quarter revenue rose from the first quarter, and management raised its full-year political advertising and Adjusted EBITDA guidance. However, the latest quarter was missed, recent earnings surprises have been erratic, and the sector backdrop is a headwind; stable management and controlled capital spending offer some support.
The multi-year view depends on management sustaining its recently raised guidance, especially for political advertising and profitability. A guidance cut would damage credibility, while interest-rate cuts or continued strength among sector peers could improve the backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SBGI’s thesis rests on converting stronger advertising trends and guidance into steadier results, while managing a stretched valuation and near-term earnings uncertainty. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Sinclair, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.28 per share. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $1.0 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $0.60 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.28 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20260.6 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue near $3.54 billion in fiscal 2026 | Sinclair aims for revenue near $3.54 billion in 2026. | Intact | annual revenue falls below $3.4 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $893M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$3.54 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026893,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.73 → $-1.25 · observed estimates
$3.22B → $3.22B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.73 | $3,222,406,170 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.73 | $3,222,406,170 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.73 | $3,222,406,170 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.73 | $3,222,406,170 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.73 | $3,222,406,170 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.73 | $3,222,406,170 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.27 | $3,237,632,067 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.27 | $3,237,607,500 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.27 | $3,237,607,500 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.73 | $3,221,406,170 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.73 | $3,221,406,170 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.73 | $3,221,406,170 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.27 | $3,237,607,500 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.27 | $3,237,607,500 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.21 | $3,223,097,200 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.58 | $3,219,625,380 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.21 | $3,223,097,200 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.21 | $3,223,097,200 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.21 | $3,223,097,200 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.21 | $3,223,097,200 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.21 | $3,223,097,200 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.21 | $3,223,097,200 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.21 | $3,223,097,200 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.21 | $3,223,097,200 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.21 | $3,223,097,200 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.26 | $3,225,120,200 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.26 | $3,225,120,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.22 | $3,218,600,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.25 | $3,218,100,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.25 | $3,218,100,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.25 | $3,218,100,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.25 | $3,218,100,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.25 | $3,218,100,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.25 | $3,218,100,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.25 | $3,218,100,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.25 | $3,218,100,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.25 | $3,218,100,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.25 | $3,218,100,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.25 | $3,218,100,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.25 | $3,218,100,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.25 | $3,218,100,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.25 | $3,218,100,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.25 | $3,218,100,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.25 | $3,218,100,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.25 | $3,218,100,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.25 | $3,218,100,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.25 | $3,218,100,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.25 | $3,218,100,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.25 | $3,218,100,167 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.25 | $3,218,100,167 | 3 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.