Sinclair, Inc. (SBGI)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$14.10+4.68%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SBGI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 26.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| -1.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SBGI — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-28
Chief Accounting Officer — David Bochenek: The Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer is separating from the company, with the CFO assuming the principal accounting officer role, representing a standard executive departure with an orderly succession.
Why it matters: Management said subscriber trends were a little more stable. A new decline would challenge that sign of steadier distribution.
Worry ifQ3 distribution revenue falls below $434 million, the Q2 2025 level.
Less concerning ifQ3 distribution revenue is $434 million or higher year over year.
Why it matters: Sinclair raised its 2026 profit range after Q2. The Nov. 4 report can show if results still support that range.
Watch forThe Nov. 4 report keeps 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance at $730 million or higher.
Also watch forThe Nov. 4 report cuts 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance below $730 million.
Why it matters: Q2 core ad revenue fell even as political ads rose. A continued drop would show that strong election ads are crowding out other demand.
Worry ifQ3 core ad revenue falls more than 3% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 core ad revenue is flat or higher year over year.
Why it matters: Debt stood at $4.059 billion in Q2. Further paydown and steady cash access matter as leverage remains high.
Watch forThe next report shows debt below $4.059 billion and liquidity at or above $1.4 billion.
Also watch forThe next report shows debt at or above $4.059 billion, or liquidity below $1.4 billion.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$168 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $398 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,780 loss on $10,000 · 27.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.