Sinclair, Inc. (SBGI)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.81-0.86%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SBGI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 43.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 44.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SBGI — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-28
Chief Accounting Officer — David Bochenek: The Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer is separating from the company, with the CFO assuming the principal accounting officer role, representing a standard executive departure with an orderly succession.
Why it matters: Sinclair is gaining many new subscribers. This shows their direct-to-consumer plan is working.
Supportive ifTennis Channel reports subscriber growth of 10% or more in Q2.
Worry ifTennis Channel reports subscriber growth below 10% in Q2.
Why it matters: Staying within this capex range is important for Sinclair's growth strategy.
Supportive ifQ2 capital spending was $75 million or more.
Worry ifQ2 capital spending was less than $75 million.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA shows how well Sinclair is doing. Better results mean good cost control.
Supportive ifQ2 adjusted EBITDA was over $130 million. This shows strong operations.
Worry ifQ2 adjusted EBITDA was under $120 million. This may show some weaknesses.
Why it matters: This capex range matters for future growth and efficiency. Meeting this range shows good capital use.
Supportive ifCapex spending is reported between $75 million and $80 million.
Worry ifCapex spending is less than $75 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$175 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $389 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,255 loss on $10,000 · 22.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Capex spending is crucial for Sinclair's growth strategy. The company has set a range of $75 million to $80 million for 2026.
Watch forSinclair reports Q2 spending between $75 million and $80 million.
Also watch forSinclair reports Q2 spending below $75 million. This may mean budget cuts.
Why it matters: Maintaining revenue growth is key for Sinclair to meet its 2026 targets. The company aims for $3.4 billion to $3.54 billion in total revenue for the year.
Supportive ifQ2 total revenue was over $850 million. This shows strong growth.
Worry ifQ2 total revenue was under $800 million. This suggests slower growth.
Why it matters: If revenue grows, it may show the sector is recovering. This could boost investor confidence in Sinclair.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue growth reported above 0% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth reported below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Updates on capital spending show how Sinclair is investing in its future. This affects growth potential.
Watch forSinclair plans to spend $75 million or more on capital in 2026.
Also watch forCapex is below $75 million. This shows weaker plans for investment.
Why it matters: Sinclair's finances depend on growth in political advertising revenue. This shows they are using the midterm elections well.
Supportive ifPolitical advertising revenue in Q3 is over $100 million. This shows strong interest in the election.
Worry ifPolitical advertising revenue in Q3 is less than $75 million. This means demand is lower than expected.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide key insights into revenue and expenses. It is a major event for investors.
Watch forThe earnings report shows good results compared to what was expected.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows bad results compared to what was expected.
Why it matters: Plans show that management is confident and stable. This helps investors feel good about the future.
Watch forManagement confirms plans for 2026. They expect $3.4 to $3.54 billion.
Also watch forManagement has cut their plans for 2026. They expect lower financial results.
Why it matters: Reaffirming guidance shows confidence in making money. This can affect how much investors trust.
Supportive ifSinclair publicly reaffirms its full year 2026 financial guidance.
Worry ifSinclair withdraws or lowers its financial guidance for 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping spending in check is important for cash flow and financial health.
Watch forCapital expenditures for Q3 stay within the guided range of $75 to $80 million.
Also watch forSpending is over $80 million. This may mean they are spending too much.
Why it matters: Reducing debt is important for Sinclair's financial stability. It shows that management wants to keep strong cash flow.
Supportive ifSinclair plans to reduce debt by at least $100 million next quarter.
Worry ifNo announcements of debt reduction or an increase in total debt levels.
Why it matters: Keeping the revenue guidance shows the company is on track for its goals. It signals confidence in future earnings.
Supportive ifSinclair reports revenue of at least $1.6 billion in Q2 2026 to stay on track.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue falls below $1.6 billion, raising doubts about guidance.
Why it matters: Reducing debt helps keep finances stable. This is important for growth.
Supportive ifDebt is reduced by at least $100 million in Q3.
Worry ifDebt remains unchanged or increases in Q3.
Why it matters: Core advertising revenue shows how healthy the business is. Drops may mean problems.
Worry ifCore advertising revenue declines more than 5% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifCore advertising revenue grows year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping guidance shows trust in performance and market conditions.
Watch forManagement reaffirms full year 2026 financial guidance in Q3.
Also watch forManagement lowers full year 2026 financial guidance in Q3.