Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$2.41 → $2.41 · observed estimates
Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (SBH)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$18.74-2.60%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.41 → 2.41 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SBH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Generate free cash flow at least $200M next quarter | Free cash flow is strong at $200 million next quarter. | Intact | free cash flow falls below $180 million next quarter | Free cash flow: $61.631M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=$200 million free cash flow. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 3, 202661,631,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$2.41 → $2.41 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SBH is a value-oriented business with a profitable-growth thesis, rather than a high-growth story. The multi-year view is intact, supported by recent earnings progress, though recent financial performance and earnings quality are rated neutral.
The evidence describes SBH as cheap versus peers, and its valuation score has recently fallen. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified with low fragility, but the expectations gap is negative, so the valuation evidence does not point to a large cushion against weaker results.
Near term, management is on track with its fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS goal, and adjusted EPS rose from the first to the third quarter. Third-quarter sales were nearly flat year over year, while free cash flow has been consistent but remains a mixed assessment against the annual goal. Guidance cuts are a key risk, and the company’s history of a deep miss and smaller size warrant attention despite a low current miss-risk assessment.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management maintaining its earnings progress and delivering the annual free cash flow goal. Consumer Discretionary sector conditions are another swing factor: continued strength among major bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while weaker results or guidance could remove that support. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative signal.
For the 1 to 3 year view, SBH combines cheap peer-relative valuation with evidence of earnings execution, but the case remains sensitive to guidance, modest sales growth, and cash flow delivery. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit margins stay near 8.6%. |
| Intact |
| operating margin falls below 7.5% next year |
Operating margin: 9.24% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~8.65% operating margin. The stored target says 2025-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 3, 20269.235374 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain revenue growth trajectory near 2% | A primary condition in Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=2% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 1% next year | Revenue growth: 0.23% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=2% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 3, 20260.233899 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain valuation discount to peers with PE below 10 | A supporting condition in Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is PE below 10. | Intact | PE rises above 15 without growth improvement | P/E (TTM): 9.52x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 20269.5248 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.85B → $3.85B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.41 | $3,847,960,804 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.