Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (SBH)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$19.24+7.49%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SBH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -40.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 42.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
SBH — CFO transition
Dated 2026-04-02
Chief Financial Officer — Marlo Cormier: Ms. Cormier resigned to pursue other opportunities, and Ms. Adrianne Lee was appointed as the new CFO.
Why it matters: Q3 comparable sales were flat. Positive Q4 sales would show that growth held through the year-end quarter.
Supportive ifQ4 FY26 comparable sales are above 0% year over year.
Worry ifQ4 FY26 comparable sales are below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Q3 gross margin rose to 52.4%. A further gain would extend the recent margin improvement.
Supportive ifQ4 FY26 GAAP gross margin is above 52.4%.
Worry ifQ4 FY26 GAAP gross margin is below 52.4%.
Why it matters: The Nov. 12 report is the next stated earnings date. It will show whether the narrowed sales and profit goals still stand.
Watch forThe report keeps FY26 sales guidance at $3.725–$3.733 billion and adjusted EPS at $2.04–$2.08 billion.
Also watch forThe report cuts FY26 sales guidance below $3.725 billion or adjusted EPS below $2.04.
Why it matters: The company set an annual free cash flow goal of about $200 million. Results below it would weaken evidence of steady cash generation.
Worry ifFY26 free cash flow is below $180 million, more than 10% under the $200 million goal.
Less concerning ifFY26 free cash flow is at least $200 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$142 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $397 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,047 loss on $10,000 · 30.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The company narrowed its full-year adjusted EPS range. The final result tests that target.
Supportive ifFY26 adjusted diluted EPS is at least $2.04 and no more than $2.08.
Worry ifFY26 adjusted diluted EPS is below $2.04.