Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (SBH)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$16.70+1.40%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SBH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -48.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 49.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 44 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SBH — CFO transition
Dated 2026-04-02
Chief Financial Officer — Marlo Cormier: Ms. Cormier resigned to pursue other opportunities, and Ms. Adrianne Lee was appointed as the new CFO.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for Sally Beauty's future. It shows if the company is on track.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 4% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: A significant drop in sales would challenge the growth narrative and raise concerns about demand.
Worry ifQ4 consolidated net sales decline more than 2% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ4 consolidated net sales increase or decline less than 2% year over year.
Why it matters: This range shows if the company can maintain its revenue growth. Meeting this target would signal strong execution.
Supportive ifIn Q3, net sales were between $932 million and $942 million.
Worry ifIn Q3, net sales were less than $932 million.
Why it matters: If EPS falls below this level, it shows problems with making money and running the business.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted EPS in Q4 lands below $0.52.
Less concerning ifAdjusted diluted EPS in Q4 meets or exceeds $0.52.
Why it matters: Weak cash flow may mean problems with managing money and investing for future growth.
Worry ifFree cash flow in Q4 drops below $50 million.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow in Q4 meets or exceeds $50 million.
Why it matters: EPS guidance affects investor confidence. It shows how well the company expects to perform.
Watch forEPS guidance raised to $2.10 or higher.
Also watch forEPS guidance lowered to below $2.02.
Why it matters: Reaching this target would show Sally Beauty makes strong cash and uses it well.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported at or above $200 million.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $200 million.
Why it matters: This metric shows if customer demand is steady. It helps see how well the company adapts.
Watch forComparable sales growth was over 1%.
Also watch forComparable sales growth was below flat.
Why it matters: Negative sales growth means customers are changing what they want. This can hurt future earnings.
Worry ifQ4 sales growth was below -1%.
Less concerning ifQ4 sales growth was above 0%.
Why it matters: A drop in cash flow can show problems with efficiency. This can affect capital use.
Worry ifCash flow from operations was below $60 million.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations was above $70 million.
Why it matters: Slow growth in gross margin can show operational problems. This can impact profits.
Worry ifGAAP gross margin reported below 52.4%.
Less concerning ifGAAP gross margin reported above 52.7%.
Why it matters: Changes to EPS guidance can show shifts in profit. This can affect investor confidence.
Watch forAdjusted diluted EPS guidance is now above $2.08.
Also watch forAdjusted diluted EPS guidance is now below $2.04.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$162 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $443 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,047 loss on $10,000 · 30.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.