SOUTHERN COPPER CORP DEL (SCCO)
NYSEMaterialsCopperSnapshot 2026-09-04
$198.76-0.39%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsCopperSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Southern Copper is growing copper output toward 1.6 million tons by 2033. It keeps costs low, with negative copper costs recently reported. The company plans a $20.5 billion expansion, supporting long-term growth. Earnings beats show operational strength despite CEO transition.
Growth plans face risks from permit setbacks in Peru. The CEO's unexpected passing may hurt execution. The recent debt issuance and capital obligations add financial pressure. The stock is down 15.7% from its high, reflecting market concerns.
The price is about 25% above our fair value near $136 and 8% below the Street median target. Analysts expect about 5% revenue growth, which is priced in. Our view is slightly more cautious on valuation and growth risks.
Breaks if: debt or capital obligations materially impair financial flexibility
Breaks if: copper production fails to grow toward 1.6 million tons by 2033
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on copper production. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, but there are concerns about elevated risks and expensive valuation compared to peers.
The market appears to price in a durable premium for SCCO, suggesting that investors expect continued strong performance. However, the expectations gap indicates that there may be some unjustified optimism about future growth given the current execution quality.
Management has shown a commitment to increasing copper production and maintaining cost-efficiency, although recent production has declined. The fundamentals are likely to remain strong in the near term, but there is a risk of missing guidance due to the high miss-rate in the industry.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. Falling copper output threatens the company's production growth target. This decline raises concerns about meeting future production goals. The overall market backdrop has also shifted to a risk-off sentiment.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Advance organic growth to reach long-term copper production target of 1.6 million tons by 2033 through project development and operational improvements.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Copper production declined 3.8% year-to-date in 2026 to 461,206 tonnes, affected by lower ore grades at Peruvian operations. Management reiterates the long-term goal of 1.6 million tons by 2033, indicating ongoing commitment but current production is below target trajectory.
“Committed to operational objectives of increasing production to 1.6 million tons while maintaining cost-efficiency discipline.”
“Committed to operational objectives of increasing production to 1.6 million tons while maintaining cost-efficiency discipline.”
Breaks if: cost-efficiency discipline weakens or costs rise materially
Breaks if: revenue falls below $13.42 billion in FY26
Advance organic growth to reach long-term copper production target of 1.6 million tons by 2033 through project development and operational improvements.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Copper production declined 3.8% year-to-date in 2026 to 461,206 tonnes, affected by lower ore grades at Peruvian operations. Management reiterates the long-term goal of 1.6 million tons by 2033, indicating ongoing commitment but current production is below target trajectory.
“Committed to operational objectives of increasing production to 1.6 million tons while maintaining cost-efficiency discipline.”
“Committed to operational objectives of increasing production to 1.6 million tons while maintaining cost-efficiency discipline.”
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to meet production targets and maintain cost discipline. Additionally, external factors such as inflation and the performance of sector peers will play a significant role in shaping future outcomes.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SCCO's performance will depend on effective execution of management priorities and external market conditions. Not investment advice.