Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
SOUTHERN COPPER CORP DEL (SCCO)
NYSEMaterialsCopperSnapshot 2026-11-04
$165.38-6.48%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsCopperSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.19 → 7.46 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SCCO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage capital allocation and debt prudently | A supporting condition in SOUTHERN COPPER CORP DEL's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain manageable debt levels and capital obligations. | Intact | debt or capital obligations materially impair financial flexibility | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical copper producer with a durable premium to peers, rather than a steady compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, and recent results and company-quality signals have improved, but execution and industry risks remain meaningful.
Valuation is stretched versus peers, with a durable premium and a positive expectations gap. The evidence points to some execution weakness being reflected, but not a broader combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulent conditions.
Near term, recent earnings beats and strong financial performance support the business setup, while the risk of a guidance cut remains an important watch point. Over the multi-year view, Tia Maria construction has advanced, but year-to-date copper production is down and progress toward the 1.6 million-ton goal is limited; cost efficiency is mixed.
The thesis depends on production improving toward management’s stated goal and Tia Maria continuing to advance toward operations. Near term, a guidance cut would weaken the setup, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers would support the copper-sector tailwind; misses or lower guidance from those peers could weaken it.
Over the next one to three years, SCCO’s strong recent performance and sector support keep the long-term thesis intact, but stretched peer valuation and uneven execution leave it exposed to production and guidance setbacks. The evidence is medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Southern Copper is growing copper output toward 1.6 million tons by 2033. |
| Improving |
| copper production fails to grow toward 1.6 million tons by 2033 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We are advancing toward our goal of increasing production to 1.6 million tonnes, while maintaining the disciplined cost management and operational efficiency that have long defined our business.”” “With the contribution of Tia Maria and El Pilar we will surpass the one-million tonnes mark for annual production, of which 85% will be refined copper.” Revenue was $4.697 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Maintain cost-efficiency discipline | A primary condition in SOUTHERN COPPER CORP DEL's published investment case. The stated target is maintain cost-efficiency discipline. | Improving | cost-efficiency discipline weakens or costs rise materially | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “These achievements were thanks to our strategy and disciplined cost control at the operational level.” “We are advancing toward our goal of increasing production to 1.6 million tonnes, while maintaining the disciplined cost management and operational efficiency that have long defined our business.”” Operating income was $2.815 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve revenue near $13.42 billion in 2026 | A primary condition in SOUTHERN COPPER CORP DEL's published investment case. The stated target is >= $13.42 billion revenue. | Intact | revenue falls below $13.42 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $4.697B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $13.42 billion revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 20264,696,600,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We are advancing toward our goal of increasing production to 1.6 million tonnes, while maintaining the disciplined cost management and operational efficiency that have long defined our business.”” “With the contribution of Tia Maria and El Pilar we will surpass the one-million tonnes mark for annual production, of which 85% will be refined copper.” Revenue was $4.697 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.27 → $7.46 · observed estimates
$16.02B → $16.92B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.27 | $16,020,010,130 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.23 | $16,025,617,160 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.23 | $16,025,617,160 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.19 | $16,053,636,607 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.23 | $16,042,001,780 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.22 | $16,038,619,740 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.18 | $16,065,697,321 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.22 | $16,038,619,740 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.18 | $16,065,697,321 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.22 | $16,038,619,740 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.22 | $16,038,619,740 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.22 | $16,038,619,740 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.22 | $16,038,619,740 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.18 | $16,065,697,321 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.22 | $16,038,619,740 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.22 | $16,038,619,740 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.22 | $16,038,619,740 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.18 | $16,065,697,321 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.18 | $16,065,697,321 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.18 | $16,065,697,321 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.18 | $16,065,697,321 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.18 | $16,065,697,321 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.18 | $16,065,697,321 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.18 | $16,065,697,321 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.18 | $16,065,697,321 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.04 | $16,068,610,537 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.03 | $16,011,610,537 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.03 | $16,011,610,537 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.03 | $16,011,610,537 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.03 | $16,011,610,537 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.03 | $16,011,610,537 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.02 | $15,996,896,252 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.02 | $15,996,896,252 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.02 | $15,996,896,252 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.03 | $15,996,896,252 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.03 | $15,996,896,252 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.03 | $15,996,896,252 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.03 | $15,996,896,252 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.03 | $15,996,896,252 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.02 | $15,996,896,252 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.02 | $16,003,636,502 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.01 | $16,003,310,753 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.01 | $16,003,310,753 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.01 | $16,003,310,753 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.01 | $16,003,310,753 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.15 | $16,175,469,888 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.15 | $16,175,469,888 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.15 | $16,175,469,888 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.15 | $16,175,469,888 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.15 | $16,175,469,888 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.15 | $16,175,469,888 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.15 | $16,175,469,888 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.19 | $16,281,603,222 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.19 | $16,281,603,222 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.19 | $16,281,603,222 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.19 | $16,281,603,222 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.19 | $16,281,603,222 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.19 | $16,281,603,222 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.19 | $16,281,603,222 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.19 | $16,281,603,222 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.19 | $16,281,603,222 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.19 | $16,281,603,222 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.19 | $16,281,603,222 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.19 | $16,281,603,222 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.19 | $16,281,603,222 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.19 | $16,281,603,222 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.19 | $16,281,603,222 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.19 | $16,281,603,222 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.19 | $16,281,603,222 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.19 | $16,281,603,222 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.19 | $16,281,603,222 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.19 | $16,281,603,222 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.19 | $16,281,603,222 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.38 | $16,571,457,628 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.43 | $16,640,880,245 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.43 | $16,640,880,245 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.43 | $16,640,880,245 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.43 | $16,648,546,912 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.43 | $16,648,546,912 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.43 | $16,648,546,912 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.45 | $16,719,362,917 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.45 | $16,719,362,917 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.45 | $16,719,362,917 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.45 | $16,719,362,917 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.45 | $16,735,543,544 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.45 | $16,735,543,544 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.51 | $16,781,553,711 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.50 | $16,782,184,116 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.50 | $16,782,184,116 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.52 | $16,807,385,999 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.56 | $16,872,486,465 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.56 | $16,872,486,465 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.56 | $16,819,998,059 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.56 | $16,819,998,059 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.53 | $16,819,998,059 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.53 | $16,819,998,059 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.57 | $16,896,033,054 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.57 | $16,896,033,054 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.57 | $16,896,033,054 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.57 | $16,896,033,054 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.57 | $16,896,033,054 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.46 | $16,924,385,371 | 9 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 11 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
3 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.