SOUTHERN COPPER CORP DEL (SCCO)
NYSEMaterialsCopperSnapshot 2026-09-04
$198.76-0.39%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsCopperSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SCCO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 33.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 32.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers
SCCO — debt issuance
Dated 2026-06-25
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement . On June 24, 2026, Southern Copper Corporation (the “Company”) completed a registered public offering (the “Offering”) of U.S.$1.25 billion aggregate principal amount of its 5.350% notes due 2036 (the “Notes”). The Notes will bear interest from June 24, 2026, payable semi-annually on June 24 and December 24 of each year, beginning on December 24, 2026. The Notes were offered by the Company pursuant to its Registration Statement on Form S-3 (File No.…
Why it matters: A drop would show problems in making cash. This could affect future investments.
Worry ifCash flow from operations declines more than 10% YoY in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations goes up or stays stable each year. This shows strong results.
Why it matters: Copper prices affect revenue and profits. This impacts plans for future growth.
Watch forCopper prices rise well above current levels after the next earnings report.
Also watch forCopper prices drop well below current levels after the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company is meeting its production and cost goals. This is key for future growth.
Watch forThe earnings report shows copper production at or above 400,000 tons. Costs remain efficient.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows production below 400,000 tons. Costs are rising beyond management's guidance.
Why it matters: The new CEO's vision will shape the company's direction after the recent leadership change.
Watch forA new plan is announced. It shows growth ideas and goals.
Also watch forNo clear strategic direction is communicated by the new CEO.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$204 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $511 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,022 loss on $10,000 · 30.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Copper prices impact revenue and profits. Stable or rising prices help the company's finances.
Supportive ifCopper prices stabilize above $4.00 per pound for two consecutive months.
Worry ifCopper prices drop below $3.50 per pound for two consecutive months.
Why it matters: A big drop would raise worries about how well the company runs.
Worry ifCopper production falls more than 5% YoY in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifCopper production is steady or grows each year. This shows recovery in operations.
Why it matters: A recovery in copper production is key to meeting the long-term goal of 1.6 million tons by 2033.
Supportive ifCopper production goes up from one quarter to the next in 2H26. This ends the current decline.
Worry ifCopper production continues to decline or remains flat in 2H26.
Why it matters: A new CEO can change company direction and impact investor confidence. This is crucial after the recent leadership loss.
Watch forAn announcement of a new CEO with relevant industry experience and a clear vision for growth.
Also watch forThere is no new CEO after months. This creates uncertainty in leadership.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would signal a shift in the declining trend of the materials sector. This could improve Southern Copper's outlook.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is now positive. This shows a recovery in materials.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is still negative. This confirms the ongoing decline.
Why it matters: Net sales growth indicates demand for copper and other metals. It reflects the company's market position and pricing power.
Supportive ifNet sales in Q3 2026 exceed $4.5 billion, showing continued growth.
Worry ifNet sales in Q3 2026 fall below $4.0 billion.
Why it matters: Keeping costs in check is key for making money, especially in a tough market.
Supportive ifCost per ton decreases by more than 5% compared to the previous quarter.
Worry ifCost per ton increases by more than 5% compared to the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Updates on Michiquillay show that copper production is increasing. This project is important for future growth.
Supportive ifBig milestones in the Michiquillay project will be announced by the end of 2026.
Worry ifNo updates or delays are reported on the Michiquillay project by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Production levels are important for growth. Hitting targets shows good performance.
Supportive ifProduction reaches or exceeds 400,000 tons in any quarter.
Worry ifProduction falls below 350,000 tons in any quarter.
Why it matters: Progress on Tia Maria is crucial for future copper production growth. Delays could impact timelines.
Supportive ifTia Maria project completion reaches 50% or more by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifCompletion remains below 40% by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Lower cash costs help make more money. Rising costs may show problems.
Worry ifOperating cash cost per pound of copper remains below $0.05 in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating cash cost per pound of copper rises above $0.10 in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Stable or improving net income margins indicate strong financial health. Declines could raise concerns.
Supportive ifNet income margin stays at or above 38% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet income margin falls below 35% in Q3 2026.