Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-05-31 · fmp
Scholastic Corporation (SCHL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryPublishingSnapshot 2026-11-05
$36.86-3.99%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryPublishingSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.42 → 2.42 EPS · FY ending May 31, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SCHL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Positive EPS in fiscal 2027 | A supporting condition in Scholastic Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= 2.67 USD_PER_SHARE. | Broken | EPS falls below $2.67 in fiscal 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-05-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a challenged, loss-making business with elevated risk, rather than a proven durable grower. Its thesis is in a watch state: momentum has improved, but recent performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.
SCHL is valued at a premium to peers, and the evidence flags that valuation as unjustified. The expectations gap points to potential sensitivity to a change in market views, though confidence in that estimate is low and the overall fragility rating is low.
In the near term, a September earnings miss and a history of uneven results leave execution in focus, even though the stated miss risk is rated quiet. For the multi-year view, fiscal 2026 revenue fell while adjusted EBITDA rose, and management expects fiscal 2027 revenue growth; however, Education revenue continued to decline and its adjusted operating loss widened in the latest reported quarter.
The thesis hinges on whether management can turn its growth and margin priorities into sustained revenue progress while addressing Education’s decline. Near-term guidance is a key swing factor, while results and guidance from major consumer-discretionary companies could either support or weaken the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the case rests on improving execution and Education recovery, with recent profitability gains countered by weak revenue trends and a premium valuation. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow is guided at $430 million for fiscal 2026. |
| Broken |
| Free cash flow falls below $430 million in fiscal 2026 |
Free cash flow: $-108.7M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=430 USD_MILLIONS. Target period ends 2026-05-31; this observation covers 2027-Q1. Sep 25, 2026-108,700,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth near 5% annually | A primary condition in Scholastic Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=4.9% YoY. | Broken | Revenue growth falls below 4.9% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Completion of $200 million share repurchase program | A primary condition in Scholastic Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Repurchase of $200 million common stock. | Improving | Buyback program is delayed or canceled | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.00 → $2.42 · observed estimates
$1.73B → $1.67B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.00 | $1,734,997,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.06 | $1,719,703,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.42 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.43 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.43 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.43 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.43 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.43 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.43 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.43 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.43 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.43 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.43 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.43 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.43 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.43 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.43 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.43 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.43 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.43 | $1,686,153,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-05 | $2.42 | $1,671,092,000 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 17, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.