Scholastic Corporation (SCHL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryPublishingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$35.66-6.94%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryPublishingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SCHL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 7.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers
SCHL — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2025-12-18
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
Why it matters: If revenue growth stabilizes, it would show a turnaround after a 3% drop in fiscal 2026.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue shows growth of 2% or more compared to Q2.
Worry ifQ3 revenue continues to decline year over year.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below the median, it signals a potential shift in the growth phase for Scholastic.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below the median for the sector in the next earnings report.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median for the sector.
Why it matters: Reaching this target shows better management of the balance sheet and finances.
Supportive ifNet leverage is at or below 2.5x Adjusted EBITDA.
Worry ifNet leverage is above 2.5x. This shows possible financial strain.
Why it matters: The tender offer is part of a plan to increase shareholder value. Completion shows good capital use.
Supportive ifThe tender offer works well. Many shares were tendered.
Worry ifThe tender offer does not get enough interest or is canceled.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$98 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $389 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,467 loss on $10,000 · 24.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More money in Education shows progress in fixing this struggling area.
Supportive ifEducation segment revenue growth turns positive year over year in Q3.
Worry ifEducation revenue keeps going down each year in Q3.
Why it matters: A rise in revenue growth would signal a positive change in company momentum. This could improve investor confidence.
Supportive ifRevenue growth speeds up to over 4% each year.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow shows financial health. It allows returning capital to shareholders.
Supportive ifFiscal 2026 free cash flow reported above $430 million.
Worry ifFiscal 2026 free cash flow reported below $430 million.
Why it matters: Revenue performance in this segment is crucial for overall growth. It shows how well Scholastic is managing its key franchises.
Worry ifChildren's Book Publishing revenues decline more than 3% year over year.
Less concerning ifChildren's Book Publishing revenues stabilize or grow year over year.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows good cost and operations management. This is important for long-term growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA reported within the $146 million to $156 million range for the full year.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is under $146 million. This shows there are problems with operations.
Why it matters: The guidance will show if Scholastic can return to growth after a revenue decline in fiscal 2026.
Supportive ifFiscal 2027 revenue growth guidance of 2% to 4% confirmed in the next earnings call.
Worry ifRevenue growth guidance is below 2% or shows a continued decline.