Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Stepan Company (SCL)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$67.85-3.96%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.69 → 3.72 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SCL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Deliver full year adjusted EBITDA growth | Management aims to grow adjusted EBITDA this year. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA does not grow in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “With these actions and the strong first nine-month results, we believe we will deliver full year Adjusted EBITDA growth, positive free cash flow and continue to de-leverage the balance sheet in 2026."” “With these actions and the strong first half results, we believe we will deliver full year Adjusted EBITDA growth, positive free cash flow and continue to de-leverage the balance sheet in 2026.”” Revenue was $692.154 million in 2026-Q3. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an execution-led turnaround and diversification story, not yet a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: recent results show progress, but earnings quality remains loss-making and management execution is rated volatile.
SCL is rated expensive, with a 1.65-times premium versus peers and an expectations gap of 0.27; the valuation model has medium confidence. Valuation rose by 17.5 points recently, while the priced-in tag is unjustified, so the premium does not appear well supported by the current evidence.
Near term, adjusted EBITDA is improving: it rose in the third quarter and was higher for the first nine months than in the prior-year period. Project Catalyst has contributed savings, and several strategic businesses improved, but the savings are not fully quantified and positive full-year free cash flow remains unproven after negative first-half cash flow. A guidance cut is a meaningful near-term risk, while recent earnings surprises have been erratic despite a quiet miss-risk rating.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued adjusted EBITDA growth, measurable cost savings, and conversion of earnings into positive full-year free cash flow. Sector momentum is another swing factor: continued strength from LIN, ECL, and SHW would support the backdrop, while weaker results or guidance from those peers could remove that tailwind.
For the 1-to-3-year view, SCL shows real operating progress, but the loss-making profile, uncertain cash generation, and expensive valuation make consistent execution central to the thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Improve operating income through efficiency | A supporting condition in Stepan Company's published investment case. The stated target is operating income improves over next 4 quarters. | Intact | Operating income does not improve over next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Grow revenue above 9% annually | A primary condition in Stepan Company's published investment case. The stated target is >=9% YoY revenue growth. | Improving | YoY revenue growth falls below 9% next year | Revenue growth: 17.26% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=9% YoY revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Nov 4, 202617.257795 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.92 → $3.72 · observed estimates
$2.67B → $2.73B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.92 | $2,666,450,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.92 | $2,666,450,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.92 | $2,666,450,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.92 | $2,666,450,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.92 | $2,666,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.92 | $2,666,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.92 | $2,666,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.92 | $2,666,450,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.92 | $2,666,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.52 | $2,679,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.92 | $2,666,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.52 | $2,679,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.67 | $2,679,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.92 | $2,666,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.67 | $2,679,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.67 | $2,679,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.67 | $2,679,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.67 | $2,679,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.67 | $2,679,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.67 | $2,679,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.67 | $2,679,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.67 | $2,679,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.67 | $2,679,350,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.69 | $2,681,550,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.72 | $2,732,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.