Stepan Company (SCL)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$63.42+1.67%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SCL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 54.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 47.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SCL — workforce reduction
Dated 2026-07-29
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On July 28, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of the Company approved a plan to reduce the Company’s global salaried workforce by around 100 roles during the third quarter of 2026 as part of Project Catalyst, the Company’s previously announced comprehensive operational and efficiency initiative. As previously disclosed, the Company anticipates recognizing full-year restructuring charges in the range of $75.0 million to $80.0 million…
Why it matters: Improvement in operating income would show that management's focus on costs is starting to work. This could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifOperating income improves from -$49.6M in 2026-Q1 to above -$20M in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income continues to decline or stays below -$49.6M in Q2.
Why it matters: Changes in dividends can show how confident management is in finances and cash flow. This affects investors.
Watch forAn increase in the quarterly dividend shows strong cash flow and confidence.
Also watch forA dividend cut or suspension shows financial trouble.
Why it matters: Doing Project Catalyst well is key for saving costs and improving efficiency. It helps compete better.
Supportive ifThe Fieldsboro, NJ site closure and asset decommissioning will finish by mid-2026.
Worry ifDelays or problems in Project Catalyst can raise costs. They can also disrupt operations.
Why it matters: Growth in Adjusted EBITDA is important for Stepan. It shows better profits and efficiency.
Supportive ifQ2 Adjusted EBITDA grew compared to Q1 2026. This shows better financial health.
Worry ifQ2 Adjusted EBITDA drops or stays below Q1 2026 levels. This suggests ongoing problems.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$101 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $254 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,278 loss on $10,000 · 32.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA growth is a key goal for 2026. Growth signals recovery from recent losses.
Supportive ifStepan reports Q2 Adjusted EBITDA grew more than 5% compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ2 Adjusted EBITDA falls or stays below Q1 2026 levels.
Why it matters: Higher restructuring charges may show bigger problems. This could hurt cash flow.
Worry ifIn Q3 2026, restructuring charges are more than $20 million.
Less concerning ifIn Q3 2026, restructuring charges are less than $20 million.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth shows more demand and better market conditions.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 0% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is still negative compared to last year.
Why it matters: Finishing workforce cuts is key for saving costs in Project Catalyst.
Supportive ifThe company cuts 100 salaried jobs by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe company fails to complete the workforce reduction by end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in organic sales volume shows strong demand and competitiveness. It is key for revenue.
Supportive ifQ2 organic sales volume grew compared to last year. This shows that demand is recovering.
Worry ifQ2 organic sales volume drops or stays flat. This shows ongoing demand issues.
Why it matters: High restructuring charges may mean bigger problems. This can hurt cash flow.
Worry ifRestructuring charges in Q2 are over $62 million.
Less concerning ifRestructuring charges in Q2 are under $52 million.
Why it matters: Project Catalyst aims to save $100 million over two years. Success here supports future growth.
Supportive ifStepan says it will save at least $50 million before taxes from Project Catalyst by 2026.
Worry ifStepan says there are delays or lower savings from Project Catalyst, under $30 million.
Why it matters: Higher restructuring charges may show deeper problems. This can affect cash flow.
Worry ifTotal restructuring charges will be over $80 million for 2026. This shows big problems.
Less concerning ifTotal restructuring charges will be under $75 million. This shows good cost control.
Why it matters: Changes in dividends can signal financial health. Maintaining or increasing dividends shows confidence in cash flow.
Watch forAnnouncement of an increase in the quarterly dividend beyond $0.395 per share.
Also watch forThere may be a cut or suspension of the dividend.
Why it matters: Keeping dividends shows financial health and care for shareholders. Cuts may cause worries.
Watch forStepan confirms the dividend payment of $0.395 per share on June 15, 2026.
Also watch forStepan announces a dividend cut or stop before the payment date.
Why it matters: Weak demand in European Polymers has impacted overall performance. A shift could improve results.
Supportive ifStepan says European Polymers sales volume went up in Q2 2026 compared to last year.
Worry ifEuropean Polymers sales volume keeps going down in Q2 2026 compared to last year.
Why it matters: The materials sector is going down. Growth would mean a possible recovery.
Watch forSector revenue growth turns positive for the first time in over a year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth remains negative.
Why it matters: Surfactants are a key revenue driver; growth signals strong market demand.
Supportive ifSurfactant organic sales volume grows more than 7% year over year.
Worry ifSurfactant organic sales volume drops or stays under 6% year over year.