Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Serve Robotics, Inc. (SERV)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.65+1.53%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SERV yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successful integration of Diligent Robotics acquisition | The company completed the acquisition of Diligent Robotics to boost growth. | Intact | acquisition fails to contribute or causes operational disruption | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business, not a proven durable compounder, because it is loss-making and its recent financial performance is weak. The thesis is in a watch state, with management execution and the path to larger deployments still important.
SERV trades at a premium to peers, while the valuation model has low confidence and points to an expectations gap against the company. The valuation is tagged as justified, and the low fragility rating suggests the evidence does not show concentrated pricing fragility; however, the premium leaves room for disappointment if execution stays weak.
Near term, revenue is growing from a small base, but management cut 2026 revenue guidance, the company missed its latest quarter, and momentum weakened. Lower operating expense guidance shows cost discipline, though quarterly expenses remain elevated, and the completed Diligent Robotics acquisition has mixed integration progress.
The multi-year thesis depends on whether revenue growth and healthcare deployments can continue while operating expenses are managed. A guidance recovery next quarter would be a positive change; continued misses or weaker guidance from industrial bellwethers could remove sector support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SERV’s case rests on turning early growth into steadier execution, while managing losses and integration risk. Recent evidence is weak, so the long-term thesis remains uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It plans to manage operating expenses between $160 million and $170 million. |
| Intact |
| operating expenses exceed $180 million in 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Improved FY2026 Non-GAAP operating expense of $140 to $150 million, down from $160 to $170 million previously.” “Outlook The Company is reaffirming its 2026 financial guidance of approximately $26 million in full year revenue; and 2026 Non-GAAP operating expense of $160 to $170 million.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve approximately $26 million revenue in 2026 | A primary condition in Serve Robotics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=26 USD_MILLIONS. | Broken | full-year revenue falls below $20 million in 2026 | Revenue: $3.238M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=26 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20263,238,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.80 → $-2.46 · observed estimates
$0.08B → $0.02B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.80 | $77,440,890 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.80 | $77,440,890 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.80 | $77,440,890 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.80 | $77,440,890 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.80 | $77,440,890 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-2.29 | $77,369,459 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-2.29 | $77,369,459 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.80 | $77,440,890 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-2.29 | $77,369,459 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.80 | $77,440,890 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.80 | $77,440,890 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-2.29 | $77,369,459 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.80 | $77,440,890 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.80 | $77,440,890 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.80 | $77,440,890 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.80 | $77,440,890 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.80 | $77,440,890 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-2.29 | $77,369,459 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-2.29 | $77,369,459 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-2.29 | $77,369,459 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-2.29 | $77,369,459 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-2.29 | $77,369,459 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-2.29 | $77,369,459 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-2.29 | $77,369,459 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-2.29 | $77,369,459 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-2.32 | $26,738,605 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-2.38 | $26,771,625 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-2.38 | $26,771,625 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-2.38 | $26,771,625 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-2.38 | $26,771,625 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-2.38 | $26,771,625 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-2.38 | $26,771,625 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-2.38 | $26,771,625 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-2.38 | $26,771,625 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-2.38 | $26,771,625 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-2.38 | $26,771,625 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-2.38 | $26,771,625 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-2.38 | $26,771,625 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-2.38 | $26,771,625 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-2.38 | $26,771,625 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-2.38 | $26,771,625 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-2.45 | $24,921,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-2.45 | $24,921,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-2.45 | $24,921,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-2.45 | $24,921,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-2.45 | $24,921,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-2.45 | $24,921,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-2.45 | $24,921,625 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-2.46 | $24,921,950 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.