Serve Robotics, Inc. (SERV)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-05
$2.32-12.45%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SERV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 821.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 100.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 721.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 47 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SERV — litigation filed
Dated 2026-10-05
The information in this Form 8-K (including Exhibits 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. Forward-Looking Statements This Current Report on For…
Why it matters: DoorDash sales rose nearly 50% from Q1 to Q2. Grubhub adds merchants in Chicago and Los Angeles, but its sales are not yet reported.
Supportive ifQ3 results show DoorDash sales above Q2's level. They also report delivery sales from Grubhub's new markets.
Worry ifQ3 results show DoorDash sales below Q2's level. No Grubhub delivery sales are reported.
Why it matters: Lower Uber Eats demand drove the 2026 revenue cut. A further drop could add to the sales gap.
Worry ifQ3 results show Uber Eats delivery volume or related sales fell again from Q2. Or management cuts more demand from its 2026 plan.
Less concerning ifQ3 results show Uber Eats delivery volume or related sales rose from Q2. The 2026 revenue range has no further cut.
Why it matters: Recurring sales made up over half of Q2 revenue. A continued high share would support Serve's plan to build steadier income.
Supportive ifQ3 results show recurring revenue above 50% of total sales. Software services or hospital contracts add to revenue.
Worry ifQ3 results show recurring revenue at or below 50% of total sales.
Why it matters: Serve cut its 2026 cost plan, but Q2 costs were high. Q3 results will show if the lower plan is holding.
Worry ifServe raises its 2026 non-GAAP operating cost range above $150M, or Q3 costs put the year above that limit.
Less concerning ifServe keeps its $140M–$150M range, and Q3 costs leave the company on pace to stay within it.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$268 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $902 loss on $10,000 · 9.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,494 loss on $10,000 · 84.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Moxi contracts can add hospital revenue beyond sidewalk delivery. Serve said the new robot began rolling out to health systems in August.
Supportive ifServe names more hospitals using Moxi 2.0. A later update reports new hospital wins or higher healthcare revenue.
Worry ifServe reports no added hospitals and lower healthcare revenue than Q2's steady level.
Why it matters: Serve cut its 2026 revenue goal after Uber Eats demand came in low. Q3 results test if other sales can fill the gap.
Watch forOn November 5, Q3 revenue keeps the company on track for at least $9M in 2026. Delivery sales outside Uber Eats add to growth.
Also watch forOn November 5, Q3 revenue puts the company below pace for $9M in 2026, or management cuts the $9M–$10M range.