Serve Robotics, Inc. (SERV)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.95+2.48%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SERV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -35.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 100.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 135.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SERV — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Serve Robotics Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Why it matters: Managing expenses is key for financial health. Staying in this range helps profits.
Watch forOperating expenses reported at or below $170M for the first half of 2026.
Also watch forOperating expenses exceed $180M for the first half of 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key to meeting the $26M target for 2026. It shows if the company is on track.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported above $5M, indicating strong growth towards the $26M goal.
Worry ifQ2 revenue was below $3M. This shows slow growth.
Why it matters: More recurring revenue means the business is more stable and can grow.
Supportive ifRecurring revenue will be over 60% of total revenues in the next report.
Worry ifRecurring revenue is less than 50% of total revenue.
Why it matters: The success of micro depots could enhance Serve's delivery efficiency and expand its market reach. This is a key part of their growth strategy.
Supportive ifServe opens its first micro depot in Miami. It reports successful operations in the first month.
Worry ifThe micro depot launch is delayed or fails to meet operational targets.
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue target would indicate strong momentum toward the 2026 goal of $26 million.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported at or above $6 million, showing continued growth.
Worry ifQ2 revenue is under $5 million. This shows possible growth challenges.
Why it matters: The guidance shows how well Serve handles delivery volume challenges. A confirmation means stability. A revision could mean deeper issues.
Worry ifManagement confirms Q3 revenue guidance of $9 million to $10 million. There will be no further cuts.
Less concerning ifManagement cuts Q3 revenue guidance from $10 million to $9 million.
Why it matters: Finishing the deal is key for growth. Progress shows good integration.
Supportive ifWatch for news about Diligent Robotics. Look for successful integration steps or benefits.
Worry ifThere are reports of delays or problems in the integration process.
Why it matters: New contracts will indicate demand for healthcare robots and validate Serve's acquisition strategy. This could drive revenue growth.
Supportive ifServe announces new multiyear contracts with at least two more hospitals.
Worry ifNo new hospital contracts are announced. This shows stagnant demand.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector's growth speeds up, it could help Serve Robotics. This would improve overall market conditions.
Supportive if3-year revenue growth for the industrial sector moves back toward its highs.
Worry if3-year revenue growth continues to slow.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$276 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $921 loss on $10,000 · 9.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,528 loss on $10,000 · 75.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.