Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
SES AI Corp (SES)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.78+2.83%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SES yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase gross profit above $1.2M quarterly | Gross profit improved from $0.51M to $1.22M recently. | Broken | gross profit falls below $1 million next quarter | Gross profit: $1.147M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.2 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 11, 20261,147,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth case, not a proven durable compounder: SES is loss-making, recent performance is weak, and risk is high. The long-term thesis is in a watch state, with the overall signal recently turning cautious.
The snapshot provides no valuation measure or direct evidence of what the market already assumes, so whether SES is cheap or expensive versus peers is unclear. The main expectations gap is operational: the plans to grow ESS and drone production have not yet translated into clear evidence of broader revenue growth or commercial orders.
Near term, results remain weak: total revenue declined from the first quarter to the second quarter of 2026, although operating expenses were lower year over year in both quarters. Management has made progress on cost discipline, but delivery on ESS expansion and drone order conversion remains mixed, and the supplied evidence does not confirm drone commercial orders.
The multi-year view hinges on whether SES can scale ESS and US sales, convert drone qualifications into orders, and sustain cost reductions. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; earnings and guidance from sector bellwethers could also strengthen or weaken the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis remains uncertain: cost reductions are tangible, but revenue delivery and expansion into new sales remain unproven. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in SES AI Corp's published investment case. The stated target is No major legal settlements or penalties. |
| Under Pressure |
| Material legal penalties or settlements announced |
No material penalty yet; 2 active class actions Two securities class action lawsuits filed in May 2026; no settlements or penalties announced to date. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Reduce operating losses toward -$17.87M quarterly | The company is reducing losses, with operating income improving from -$23M to -$18M. | Broken | operating losses worsen beyond -$20 million next quarter | Operating income: $-19.196M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= -$17.87 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 11, 2026-19,196,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve 2026 revenue of $30M-$35M | A primary condition in SES AI Corp's published investment case. The stated target is >= $30 million. | Intact | revenue falls below $30 million in FY26 | Revenue: $5.072M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $30 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 11, 20265,072,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.13 → $-0.14 · observed estimates
$0.07B → $0.08B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.13 | $68,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.13 | $68,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.13 | $68,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.13 | $68,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.13 | $68,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.13 | $68,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.13 | $68,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.13 | $68,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.13 | $68,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.13 | $68,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.13 | $68,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.13 | $68,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.13 | $68,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.13 | $68,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.13 | $68,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.13 | $68,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.13 | $68,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.13 | $68,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.13 | $68,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.13 | $68,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.13 | $68,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.13 | $68,200,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.13 | $68,200,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.13 | $68,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.13 | $68,200,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.12 | $66,586,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.14 | $75,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.14 | $75,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.14 | $75,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.14 | $75,800,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.14 | $75,800,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.14 | $75,800,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.14 | $75,800,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.14 | $75,800,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.14 | $75,800,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.14 | $75,800,000 | 2 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.