Stifel (SF)
NYSEFinancialsInvestment - Banking & Investment ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$81.49-0.96%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInvestment - Banking & Investment ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Increase revenue by 30%-40% vs 2025-Q1: Q2 FY26 rev +13.0% vs 30% target; trip <17% met.
Stifel grows revenue steadily with a 17.7% rise in Q1 2026. Client assets increased 7.6% recently, showing strong demand. The company keeps paying dividends at $0.34 per share. Profit margins and earnings remain stable with EPS around $6.3 for 2026.
Revenue growth lags the 30%-40% target, with only 17.7% growth in Q1 2026. Talent loss to Wells Fargo may hurt future revenue. EPS estimates have seen downward revisions recently, signaling risks to earnings.
The price is about 7% below our fair value near $83. The market expects flat revenue growth next year, while we see moderate growth and stable dividends as key drivers.
Breaks if: Client assets growth falls below 5% over next 6 months
Breaks if: Dividend per share falls below $0.30 next year
Sustain quarterly dividend payments to shareholders at consistent levels.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. The quarterly dividend per share increased modestly from $0.31 in 2025-Q2 to $0.34 in 2026-Q2. Management has maintained or increased dividends consistently, reflecting steady capital allocation to shareholders.
“The Board declared a $0.34 quarterly dividend per share, payable on June 15, 2026.”
“The Board declared a $0.34 quarterly dividend per share, payable on March 16, 2026.”
“The Board declared a $0.46 quarterly dividend per share payable on September 16, 2025.”
“Cash dividends declared per common share $0.31 in 2025-Q2.”
Breaks if: EPS falls below $6.0 in 2026
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 17% next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable growth opportunity in the financial sector. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's focus on growth.
The market seems to have a neutral view on SF's valuation, with a slight expectation gap indicating that it is priced similarly to peers. The valuation is characterized as cheap compared to competitors, which suggests that the market is not overly optimistic about future growth.
Management has consistently delivered on key priorities, such as revenue growth and earnings per share. However, there is a moderate risk of earnings misses, as recent trends show a decline in earnings surprises.
The long-term thesis hinges on sector performance, particularly the results and guidance from major players like IBKR, BNY, and BK. Positive momentum in the financial sector could support SF, while negative trends could pose risks.
Overall, SF's strong fundamentals and management execution provide a solid foundation for the next few years, but external sector factors will be crucial. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improvement. Client assets increased significantly, which helps growth objectives. The company is maintaining and growing earnings per share. There are no new threats to the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.