Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Stifel (SF)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$71.85-1.49%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.45 → 7.19 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SF yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Grow total client assets and fee-based assets | Client assets increased 7.6% recently, showing strong demand. | Intact | Client assets growth falls below 5% over next 6 months | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “With record investment banking pipelines, record client assets, and an integrated wealth and banking platform that continues to gain momentum, Stifel is well positioned to build on its success.”” “Looking ahead, client engagement remains high across wealth management and institutional, and our investment banking pipelines are among the strongest we have seen.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SF is a financial company with a growth-oriented wealth business and exposure to investment banking. Its long-term thesis is intact, but earnings quality is fragile and recent company momentum weakened.
The valuation evidence describes SF as cheap versus peers, with the expectations gap slightly negative and the pricing assessment marked justified. That suggests the market is not pricing in a clearly demanding outlook, though confidence in this valuation read is medium.
Near term, recent financial performance has been strong and the company has reported earnings beats, while wealth revenue and client assets have grown. Revenue delivery is mixed because Institutional Group revenue weakened, and the earnings record remains fragile despite management being stable and repurchases continuing.
The next guidance update is a key risk, since a cut could lead analysts to lower estimates. The multi-year view also depends on whether wealth growth can offset Institutional Group weakness; near-term sector conditions may be helped by strong results from financial peers or weighed down if the Fed begins cutting rates.
Over the next one to three years, SF’s thesis rests on continued wealth growth and steadier earnings, with fragile execution quality and mixed revenue trends as the main constraints. The evidence supports an intact but uncertain long-term thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain dividend per share at $0.34 or higher | The company keeps paying dividends at $0.34 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.30 next year | Dividend per share: $0.34 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.34 dividend per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 20260.34 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve EPS of at least $6.76 in 2026 | The company keeps paying dividends at $0.34 per share. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $6.0 in 2026 | Diluted EPS: $1.40 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $6.76 EPS. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Nov 4, 20261.4 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase revenue by 30%-40% vs 2025-Q1 | A primary condition in Stifel's published investment case. The stated target is >=30% YoY revenue growth vs 2025-Q1. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 17% next year | Revenue growth: 0.04% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=30% YoY revenue growth vs 2025-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 20260.036952 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.05 → $7.19 · observed estimates
$6.53B → $6.47B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.05 | $6,530,602,280 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.28 | $6,589,878,040 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.28 | $6,589,878,040 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.28 | $6,589,878,040 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.46 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.33 | $6,535,669,260 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.33 | $6,535,669,260 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.33 | $6,535,669,260 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.33 | $6,535,669,260 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.33 | $6,535,669,260 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.33 | $6,535,669,260 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.51 | $6,646,456,850 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.46 | $6,613,632,517 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.45 | $6,578,559,020 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.45 | $6,578,559,020 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.41 | $6,553,110,503 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.41 | $6,553,110,503 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.41 | $6,553,110,503 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.41 | $6,553,110,503 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.41 | $6,545,037,836 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.41 | $6,545,037,836 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.37 | $6,545,037,836 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.37 | $6,545,037,836 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.37 | $6,545,037,836 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.37 | $6,545,037,836 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.37 | $6,545,037,836 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.37 | $6,545,037,836 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.37 | $6,545,037,836 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.37 | $6,545,037,836 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.37 | $6,545,037,836 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.29 | $6,473,837,108 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.29 | $6,473,837,108 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.31 | $6,467,924,275 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.31 | $6,467,924,275 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.19 | $6,467,924,275 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.19 | $6,467,924,275 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.19 | $6,467,924,275 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.19 | $6,467,924,275 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.19 | $6,467,924,275 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.19 | $6,467,924,275 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.19 | $6,467,924,275 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.19 | $6,467,924,275 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.19 | $6,467,924,275 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.19 | $6,467,924,275 | 5 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.