Stifel (SF)
NYSEFinancialsInvestment - Banking & Investment ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$81.49-0.96%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInvestment - Banking & Investment ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers
SF — officer change
Dated 2026-06-09
The filing describes amendments to a stock plan, not a management change.
Why it matters: A drop in this ranking may show issues with keeping advisors. It could also affect the quality of client service.
Worry ifStifel's employee advisor satisfaction ranking drops from No. 1.
Less concerning ifStifel maintains or improves its No. 1 ranking in employee advisor satisfaction.
Why it matters: Achieving this revenue growth shows strong business momentum and supports long-term goals.
Supportive ifRevenue growth for Q1 2026 is reported at 30% or more compared to Q1 2025.
Worry ifRevenue growth is reported below 30% compared to Q1 2025.
Why it matters: If growth drops below the median, it may mean trouble for the financial sector. This could hurt Stifel's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is reported below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: This is a key target for Stifel. Falling short may signal issues in growth.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 30% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth reported at or above 30% year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good finances. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company declares a dividend per share that is equal to or higher than the previous quarter.
Worry ifThe company cuts the dividend per share from the previous quarter.
Why it matters: High growth in treasury deposits shows strong demand for banking services. It shows client trust.
Supportive ifTreasury deposits grow more than 50% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifTreasury deposits grow less than 50% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Client asset growth is crucial for Stifel's revenue. Slower growth could indicate challenges in attracting new clients or retaining existing ones.
Worry ifTotal client assets grow by more than 10% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifTotal client assets grow by less than 10% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Earnings per share growth shows how much money Stifel makes. A slowdown may worry about how well they operate.
Worry ifDiluted EPS grows more than 40% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifDiluted EPS grows less than 40% year-over-year.
Why it matters: A drop in treasury deposits might mean less client demand or cash flow problems. This can affect revenue.
Worry ifTreasury deposits decline more than 3% in Q2 compared to Q1.
Less concerning ifTreasury deposits stabilize or grow in Q2 compared to Q1.
Why it matters: This growth rate is key to maintaining momentum in Stifel's investment banking segment. A drop below this level could signal weakening demand.
Worry ifInvestment banking revenue growth exceeds 25% compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifInvestment banking revenue growth falls below 25% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating this EPS target shows strong profits. It matches what management wants.
Supportive ifReported EPS for Q2 2026 is $1.45 or greater.
Worry ifReported EPS for Q2 2026 is below $1.45.
Why it matters: Higher compensation costs can hurt margins. This may lower profits.
Worry ifCompensation costs are 50% or lower of net revenues.
Less concerning ifCompensation costs go above 50% of net revenues.
Why it matters: If the compensation ratio goes up, it may mean rising costs that hurt profits. This matters for profitability.
Worry ifCompensation ratio stays at or below 60%.
Less concerning ifThe compensation ratio is over 60%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$94 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $284 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,346 loss on $10,000 · 23.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.