Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
$54.40+3.64%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SFM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -29.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SFM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-28
by reference. The information furnished in this Item 2.02, including Exhibits 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any reports or filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), except as shall be expressly set forth by specific refe…
Why it matters: Sprouts cut its full-year earnings outlook from $5.32-$5.40 to about $4.80. A further miss would point to more pressure on profit.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 diluted EPS is below $4.80, on a 52-week basis.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 diluted EPS is at or above $4.80, on a 52-week basis.
Why it matters: The planned CEO handoff comes as Sprouts works to lift sales and improve execution. A smooth change would keep the current plan on track.
Watch forNick Konat becomes CEO and joins the board on January 4, 2027, as announced.
Also watch forThe January 4 handoff is delayed or canceled. It may happen without Konat becoming CEO or joining the board.
Why it matters: Sprouts opened 15 stores in Q3 and set a goal of 42 net new stores for 2026. Meeting it would support its store growth plan.
Supportive ifSprouts reports 42 net new stores for 2026, meeting its stated goal.
Worry ifSprouts reports fewer than 42 net new stores for 2026.
Why it matters: The Q4 earnings range is $0.47-$0.51. A lower result would add to the Q3 earnings decline and the reduced full-year outlook.
Worry ifQ4 diluted EPS is below $0.47.
Less concerning ifQ4 diluted EPS is at or above $0.47 and within the $0.47-$0.51 range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$188 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $411 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,668 loss on $10,000 · 46.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Sprouts cut its 2026 sales outlook after Q3 comparable sales fell 0.9%. A better Q4 result would show traffic is improving.
Supportive ifQ4 comparable store sales are above -2.0%, the top end of the guided -2.0% to -4.0% decline.
Worry ifQ4 comparable store sales are below -4.0%, worse than the guided range.