Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
$81.40+2.87%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SFM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SFM — CEO transition
Dated 2026-09-01
CEO — Jack Sinclair: The CEO is transitioning to Executive Chairman as part of a planned succession process with a named internal successor, indicating an orderly handover rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Opening more than 7 new stores would show strong execution of growth plans. It reflects confidence in market demand.
Supportive ifMore than 7 new stores opened by year-end 2026.
Worry ifFewer than 7 new stores opened by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: A decline worse than -2% would signal ongoing customer engagement issues. This could affect future growth plans.
Worry ifComparable store sales decline worse than -2% in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifComparable store sales stabilize or grow in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key priority for Sprouts. Strong growth signals success in their strategy.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Consumer spending impacts Sprouts' sales. Positive trends in CPI could boost sales and margins.
Supportive ifCPI data shows an increase in consumer spending month over month.
Worry ifCPI data shows a decrease in consumer spending month over month.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$188 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $400 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,296 loss on $10,000 · 53.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Sales growth below guidance may show weak consumer demand. This could affect future earnings.
Worry ifNet sales growth for Q3 is below 5.5%.
Less concerning ifNet sales growth for Q3 exceeds 5.5%.
Why it matters: The new plan could help engage customers. It may also boost sales.
Watch forManagement shares a clear plan to improve customer engagement. This comes from the new Chief Customer Officer.
Also watch forManagement has not shared a clear plan for the new role.
Why it matters: This range will show if sales are stabilizing or declining. It is key for growth.
Watch forStore sales are above 1.5%. This shows strong customer engagement.
Also watch forStore sales are below -0.5%. This shows ongoing customer engagement problems.
Why it matters: Higher operating income is important for lasting success. It shows how healthy the business is.
Supportive ifOperating income grows more than 5% year over year in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income declines or grows less than 2% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: Andrew Jhawar's experience may help make decisions that lead to growth.
Watch forNew plans or changes linked to Andrew Jhawar's influence are announced.
Also watch forNo clear changes in strategy after his appointment.
Why it matters: This range shows if earnings are getting better or worse. It affects investors.
Watch forEarnings per share are over $1.24. This shows better profitability than expected.
Also watch forEarnings per share are below $1.20. This shows weaker profitability.
Why it matters: Opening new stores is key to Sprouts' growth strategy. Meeting or exceeding guidance shows effective execution.
Supportive ifSprouts opens at least 42 new stores by year-end.
Worry ifSprouts opens fewer than 40 new stores by year-end.
Why it matters: New store openings can drive revenue growth and expand access to healthy food.
Supportive ifRevenue growth increases following the opening of 40+ new stores as guided for 2026.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains stagnant or declines despite new store openings.
Why it matters: Opening new stores shows growth and expands access to healthy food. It confirms management's strategy.
Supportive ifSeven new stores opened by the end of Q3.
Worry ifFewer than 7 new stores opened by the end of Q3.
Why it matters: Better margins mean lower costs and stronger pricing. This is key for making money.
Supportive ifGross profit margin increases by more than 1% compared to Q1.
Worry ifGross profit margin decreases or stays flat compared to Q1.
Why it matters: This range indicates how well Sprouts is managing costs and driving profits. It reflects operational health.
Supportive ifEBIT was more than $685 million.
Worry ifEBIT was less than $675 million.
Why it matters: A better supply chain helps get products to customers. This can increase profits.
Watch forManagement shares a new plan to make the supply chain better.
Also watch forNo new plans or updates on supply chain strategy are shared.
Why it matters: The extra week could greatly increase sales and earnings. This will affect the company's performance for the year.
Supportive ifQ4 net sales show an increase of at least $200 million due to the 53rd week.
Worry ifQ4 net sales do not show an increase of at least $200 million.
Why it matters: Changes in the PPI can affect costs and consumer behavior, impacting sales.
Watch forA lower PPI leads to increased consumer spending, boosting sales for Sprouts.
Also watch forA higher PPI leads to less consumer spending. This hurts sales.