Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Southern First Bancshares, Inc. (SFST)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$61.45+2.08%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.17 → 6.03 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SFST yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Core revenue growth sustaining 60% increase since Q1 2024 | Southern First Bancshares grows core revenue 60% since early 2024. | Intact | core revenue growth falls below 40% since Q1 2024 by 2026-Q2 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SFST is a smaller-cap financial company with a growth-and-margin thesis, rather than a clear turnaround or deep-value case. The long-term thesis is intact and recently shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, though earnings quality and management execution remain neutral.
Valuation is tagged as stretched, with SFST trading at about a 2% premium to peers and expectations modestly above the model’s baseline. The expectations gap is aligned overall, and fragility is low because weak execution quality is not joined by the other conditions that would make expectations especially fragile.
Near term, recent results are strong: loans, deposits, net interest income, and net interest margin have grown, and SFST reported earnings beats in July and October. Management’s recurring focus on organic growth and margin expansion is showing in the results, while expense dollars rose even as expenses declined as a share of average assets. The next call’s guidance and interest-rate changes are key near-term risks.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on continued growth in client relationships and lending, further margin progress, and expense discipline. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, and rate cuts could weigh on the financial sector; continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers would support sector momentum.
The multi-year view is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, but the stretched valuation and sensitivity to guidance and rates leave execution as the main test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Earnings per share are expected to rise to $3.75 in 2026. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $3.00 in 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net interest margin (NIM) at least 2.88% in 2026-Q2 | Profit margins improve with a net interest margin target of at least 2.88% in 2026-Q2. | Intact | NIM falls below 2.5% in 2026-Q2 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Attract experienced bankers to strengthen team | The company attracts experienced bankers to strengthen client service. | Intact | Significant loss of key banking talent or failure to attract experienced bankers | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.17 → $6.03 · observed estimates
$0.18B → $0.17B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.17 | $176,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.17 | $176,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.17 | $176,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.17 | $176,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.17 | $176,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.17 | $176,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.17 | $176,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.17 | $176,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.17 | $176,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.17 | $176,200,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.17 | $172,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.03 | $170,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.03 | $170,300,000 | 2 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.