Southern First Bancshares, Inc. (SFST)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$59.20-3.66%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SFST
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -29.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -22.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SFST — earnings miss
Dated 2026-04-21
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 21, 2026, Southern First Bancshares, Inc., holding company for Southern First Bank, issued a press release announcing its financial results for the period ended March 31, 2026. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Why it matters: The board approved repurchases of up to $10 million. Actual purchases would show the plan is in use.
Supportive ifA company filing or report says SFST repurchased shares under the plan.
Worry ifThe next quarterly report shows no shares repurchased under the plan.
Why it matters: Q3 expense dollars rose 7% from a year ago, while revenue rose 21%. Faster expense growth could weaken that gap.
Worry ifQ4 noninterest expense grows faster year over year than total revenue.
Less concerning ifQ4 noninterest expense grows more slowly year over year than total revenue.
Why it matters: The margin rose to 3.02% in Q3. Holding above 3.0% would extend its recent rise.
Supportive ifQ4 net interest margin is at least 3.02%, above the Q3 level of 3.02%.
Worry ifQ4 net interest margin falls below 2.87%, the Q2 level.
Why it matters: Nonperforming assets edged up to 0.30% in Q3. A further rise could point to weaker loan quality.
Worry ifQ4 nonperforming assets top 0.30% of total assets.
Less concerning ifQ4 nonperforming assets are 0.30% or less, and annualized net charge-offs are 0.07% or less.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$92 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $256 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,608 loss on $10,000 · 16.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Loans grew 14% annualized in Q3. Another strong quarter would back the bank's focus on organic growth.
Supportive ifQ4 loans grow at least 10% annualized from the Q3 balance of $4.18 billion.
Worry ifQ4 loans grow less than 5% annualized or decline from the Q3 balance.