Southern First Bancshares, Inc. (SFST)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$63.68+1.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SFST
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -17.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
SFST — earnings miss
Dated 2026-04-21
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 21, 2026, Southern First Bancshares, Inc., holding company for Southern First Bank, issued a press release announcing its financial results for the period ended March 31, 2026. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Why it matters: More net charge-offs could mean lower asset quality and more credit risk.
Worry ifNet charge-offs are over 0.02% of average loans each year.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs are at or below 0.02% of average loans each year.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a potential slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact Southern First's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below the median for the sector.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median for the sector.
Why it matters: Bringing in skilled bankers is key for growth. New hires show a clear focus.
Supportive ifThey announced more experienced bankers joining the team.
Worry ifNo new significant hires announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: High core revenue growth shows the business is doing well. It shows strong momentum.
Supportive ifCore revenue growth reported above 60% YoY.
Worry ifCore revenue growth reported below 60% YoY.
Why it matters: A drop in the CET1 ratio may show weaker capital strength and compliance.
Worry ifCET1 ratio reported below 12% in Q3.
Less concerning ifCET1 ratio remains at or above 12% in Q3.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows strong performance and growth. This can help how investors feel.
Supportive ifQ3 net income reported above $11 million.
Worry ifQ3 net income reported below $11 million.
Why it matters: A drop in net interest margin may show problems with loan prices or deposit costs.
Worry ifQ3 net interest margin was below 2.87%.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin remains at or above 2.87%.
Why it matters: Slower retail deposit growth may show less client confidence or more competition.
Worry ifRetail deposit growth was below 22% each year in Q3.
Less concerning ifRetail deposit growth is at or above 22% each year.
Why it matters: Changes in interest rates from the FOMC could affect loan growth and net interest income.
Watch forFOMC raises interest rates by 25 basis points or more.
Also watch forFOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
Why it matters: A slowdown in net interest income growth could signal challenges in loan demand or margin pressure.
Worry ifNet interest income growth for Q3 falls below 25% year over year.
Less concerning ifNet interest income growth for Q3 remains at or above 25% year over year.
Why it matters: Further capital raises could indicate ongoing growth needs or balance sheet strengthening. This is crucial for future expansion plans.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a new capital raise after Q3 earnings.
Worry ifNo news about raising money after Q3 earnings.
Why it matters: Buyback details could change how investors feel and affect the stock's liquidity.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of the first buyback transactions under the $10 million plan.
Worry ifNo buyback transactions reported within the next quarter.
Why it matters: More net charge-offs may show higher credit risk and hurt profits.
Worry ifQ3 net charge-offs reported above 0.01% of average loans.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs remain at or below 0.01% of average loans.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$89 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $256 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,608 loss on $10,000 · 16.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.