Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp
Sweetgreen, Inc. (SG)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$11.80+3.42%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve positive Adjusted EBITDA between $1 million and $6 million in 2026 | The company plans to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA between $1 million and $6 million. | Broken | Adjusted EBITDA remains negative below -$5 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth story built partly on opening new restaurants, rather than a proven durable compounder. The thesis is on watch: management is stable, but recent results are weak and business risk is elevated.
SG is expensive versus peers, with a valuation premium of about two times and a re-rating identified as the main divergence driver. The evidence labels the expectations setup unjustified, but confidence is medium and does not specify exactly what the market assumes.
Near term, repeated earnings misses and a 58% estimated chance of another miss point to continued pressure on execution. Revenue grew in 2026-Q2 as new restaurants opened, but restaurant-level margins fell and fiscal 2026 guidance anticipates negative adjusted EBITDA, a measure of operating profit.
The multi-year thesis hinges on whether management can rebuild restaurant-level margins and move adjusted EBITDA toward positive territory while new locations add revenue. Near term, another guidance cut would deepen concern; continued strength or weakness among restaurant-sector bellwethers could also shape the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, restaurant openings offer a revenue growth path, but weak margins, negative profitability guidance, and an elevated risk of another earnings miss make the long-term thesis fragile. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It targets a restaurant profit margin near 14.5%. |
| Intact |
| Profit margin falls below 13.5% in FY26 |
Gross margin: 13.07% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 14.2% to 14.7%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 202613.067964 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches at least $679.5 million in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Sweetgreen, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=679.5 USD millions. | Broken | Revenue falls below $670 million in FY26 | Revenue: $192.662M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=679.5 USD millions. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026192,662,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.63 → $-0.74 · observed estimates
$0.76B → $0.74B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.63 | $755,575,586 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.63 | $755,575,586 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.63 | $755,575,586 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.63 | $755,575,586 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.63 | $755,575,586 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.63 | $755,575,586 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.63 | $755,575,586 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.63 | $755,025,586 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.63 | $755,025,586 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.63 | $755,025,586 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.63 | $755,025,586 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.63 | $755,025,586 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.63 | $755,025,586 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.63 | $755,025,586 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.64 | $753,668,443 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.64 | $753,668,443 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.64 | $753,668,443 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.64 | $753,668,443 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.64 | $753,668,443 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.64 | $753,668,443 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.64 | $753,668,443 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.64 | $753,668,443 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.64 | $753,668,443 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.64 | $753,668,443 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.64 | $753,668,443 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.74 | $733,174,527 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.74 | $733,174,527 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.74 | $733,174,527 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.74 | $733,174,527 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.74 | $733,174,527 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.74 | $733,174,527 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.74 | $733,174,527 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.74 | $733,174,527 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.74 | $733,174,527 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.74 | $733,174,527 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.74 | $733,174,527 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.74 | $733,174,527 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.74 | $733,174,527 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.74 | $733,174,527 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.74 | $733,174,527 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.74 | $733,174,527 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.74 | $733,174,527 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.74 | $733,174,527 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.74 | $733,174,527 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.74 | $733,174,527 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.72 | $736,210,241 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.72 | $736,210,241 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.72 | $736,210,241 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.73 | $735,646,563 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.73 | $735,646,563 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.73 | $735,646,563 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.73 | $735,646,563 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.73 | $735,646,563 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.73 | $735,646,563 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.73 | $735,646,563 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.73 | $735,646,563 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.73 | $735,646,563 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.73 | $735,646,563 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.73 | $735,646,563 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.73 | $735,646,563 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.73 | $735,646,563 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.73 | $735,646,563 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.73 | $735,682,277 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.74 | $735,634,760 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.74 | $735,634,760 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.74 | $735,634,760 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.75 | $738,988,606 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.75 | $739,015,395 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.75 | $739,015,395 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.75 | $739,015,395 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.75 | $739,015,395 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.75 | $739,287,380 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.75 | $739,287,380 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.75 | $739,287,380 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.75 | $739,287,380 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.75 | $739,287,380 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.75 | $739,287,380 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.75 | $739,287,380 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.75 | $739,287,380 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.75 | $739,287,380 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.75 | $739,287,380 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.75 | $739,287,380 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.75 | $738,295,071 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.75 | $738,295,071 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.75 | $738,295,071 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.75 | $738,295,071 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.75 | $738,679,686 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.75 | $738,679,686 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.75 | $739,209,802 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.75 | $739,209,802 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.75 | $740,072,105 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.75 | $740,072,105 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.75 | $740,072,105 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.75 | $740,200,266 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.75 | $740,200,266 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.74 | $742,290,205 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.74 | $742,290,205 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.74 | $742,290,205 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.74 | $742,290,205 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.74 | $742,290,205 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.74 | $742,290,205 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.74 | $742,290,205 | 7 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.