Sweetgreen, Inc. (SG)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$11.80+3.42%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 59.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 51.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
SG — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 6, 2026 , Sweetgreen, Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for its fiscal quarter ended June 28, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is furnished herewith and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securi…
Why it matters: Q2 margin fell to 13.1% from 18.9% a year earlier. Lower sales and higher food use put pressure on restaurant profit.
Watch forQ3 restaurant-level profit margin is at least 10.5%, with the full-year outlook still at 10.5%–11.0% or higher.
Also watch forQ3 margin falls below 10.5%, or management cuts the full-year range below 10.5%.
Why it matters: Management said wraps drew guests and kept them coming back in a market test. Q2 sales mix shifted toward wraps, but sales still fell.
Supportive ifManagement reports that wraps lift guest visits or sales, and same-store sales improve from Q2's -6.2%.
Worry ifManagement reports no guest or sales lift from wraps, while same-store sales stay at -6.2% or worse.
Why it matters: Q2 same-store sales fell 6.2%. The full-year range now calls for a larger drop, and the next report can show if sales are getting worse.
Watch forIn the November 5 earnings report, Q3 same-store sales fall by less than 7%. They move toward the prior full-year range of -4% to -2%.
Also watch forQ3 same-store sales decline is worse than 8%, or management cuts the full-year range below -8%.
Why it matters: Q2 Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $0.2 million, after a $6.4 million gain a year earlier. The full-year outlook now points to a loss.
Watch forManagement keeps or raises the full-year Adjusted EBITDA range of -$27 million to -$23 million. Q3 results move toward that range.
Also watch forManagement cuts the range below -$27 million, or Q3 results point to a larger full-year loss.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$312 on $10,000 · ±3.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $750 loss on $10,000 · 7.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,721 loss on $10,000 · 47.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.