Sweetgreen, Inc. (SG)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.84+2.40%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 13.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SG — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 6, 2026 , Sweetgreen, Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for its fiscal quarter ended June 28, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is furnished herewith and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securi…
Why it matters: Staying on track with revenue growth indicates effective execution of the growth plan.
Supportive ifTotal revenue for Q2 exceeds $170 million, indicating growth.
Worry ifTotal revenue for Q2 falls below $161.5 million.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would signal a shift in the declining consumer discretionary sector. It could show that Sweetgreen is gaining traction.
Supportive ifSweetgreen reports positive revenue growth in its next earnings release on August 6, 2026.
Worry ifRevenue continues to decline in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Hitting the goal of 13 new openings helps revenue growth and market reach.
Supportive ifTotal new restaurant openings reach 13 as planned for fiscal year 2026.
Worry ifNew restaurant openings drop below 10, showing slower growth.
Why it matters: A positive shift in sector revenue growth could signal a recovery. This may benefit Sweetgreen's sales and market position.
Watch forSector revenue growth reported above 0% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth reported below -1% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$353 on $10,000 · ±3.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $763 loss on $10,000 · 7.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,737 loss on $10,000 · 47.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Staying above this level shows management is working to make more money. It could lead to a better outlook.
Supportive ifThe profit margin for restaurants in Q3 is over 10.5%.
Worry ifThe profit margin for restaurants in Q3 is under 10.0%.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss would show better financial health and efficiency. This could help how investors feel.
Supportive ifNet loss decreases to below $(26.3) million in the next quarter.
Worry ifNet loss increases beyond $(26.3) million.
Why it matters: Positive Adjusted EBITDA shows the company makes more money. It also shows better work.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 is positive. It is over $1 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is still negative, worse than $(8.1) million in Q1.
Why it matters: A drop in Same-Store Sales Change shows problems with customer demand. This can hurt future revenue.
Worry ifSame-Store Sales Change in Q3 is worse than -8%.
Less concerning ifSame-Store Sales Change in Q3 improves to better than -7%.
Why it matters: Better Adjusted EBITDA means lower costs and better operations. This is key for making more money.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA in Q3 is better than $(27.0) million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA in Q3 worsens to below $(27.0) million.
Why it matters: Better margins help reach positive Adjusted EBITDA. This means better cost control and sales.
Supportive ifRestaurant profit margin goes up by more than 1% each quarter.
Worry ifRestaurant profit margin goes down or stays the same.
Why it matters: Better same-store sales show more customer demand. This can help build investor trust.
Supportive ifSame-store sales change improves to better than -7.0% as guided for fiscal year 2026.
Worry ifIf same-store sales drop below -8.0%, it shows ongoing weakness.