Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Somnigroup International (SGI)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$69.81+6.82%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.86 → 3.85 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SGI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Quarterly dividend at least $0.17 per share | The company steadily raises dividends to $0.17 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.15 next year | Dividend per share: $0.17 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.17 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 20260.17 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SGI is an acquisition-led improvement story, with earnings quality rated robust but management execution rated volatile. The long-term thesis has improved mildly, while recent performance remains mixed and below its industry cohort.
SGI is valued at a 1.48 premium versus peers, and the evidence describes it as expensive. The expectations gap is negative, which suggests expectations may be ahead of the evidence; confidence in that valuation signal is low, and no fragility gates have fired.
Near term, sales may remain uneven: revenue rose in the first quarter with Mattress Firm included, then declined 3.0% year over year in the second quarter. Operating income and North America margins improved, while the completed Leggett & Platt acquisition is expected to support vertical integration and its identified synergies are being realized. Guidance cuts and a history of quarterly misses remain risks, despite the stated low near-term miss probability.
Over the next several quarters, the thesis depends on SGI sustaining margin improvement, delivering the identified acquisition synergies, and returning revenue to growth. Near-term sector signals also matter: continued earnings strength at SN, MHK, and PATK could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
For a 1-3 year view, SGI has credible operational progress but an expensive valuation and mixed revenue trends leave the thesis on watch. Its progress hinges on executing the acquisition and margin plans without further weakening sales or guidance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Dividend Declared Today, the Company announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.17 per share, payable on September 3, 2026 to shareholders of record at the close of business on August 20, 2026.” “Dividend Declared Today, the Company announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.17 per share, payable on June 4, 2026 to shareholders of record at the close of business on May 21, 2026.”
Operating income improves significantly | Operating income improved sharply from $13 million to $187 million in one year. | Improving | Operating income falls below $13 million (2025-Q1 level) next year | Operating income: $201.7M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $187 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 2026201,700,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 4% annually | A primary condition in Somnigroup International's published investment case. The stated target is >=4% YoY. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 4% next year | Revenue growth: -3.05% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=4% YoY. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 7, 2026-3.046576 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete Leggett & Platt acquisition | Buybacks and the Leggett & Platt deal add growth and shareholder value. | Intact | Acquisition fails or is significantly delayed beyond 2026 | Acquisition completed 2026-08-26 vs target end 2026 News and 8-K filings confirm the Leggett & Platt merger closed on August 26, 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.90 → $3.85 · observed estimates
$8.17B → $11.52B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.90 | $8,173,184,820 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.90 | $8,175,123,020 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.90 | $8,175,123,020 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.90 | $8,175,123,020 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.90 | $8,175,123,020 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.89 | $8,181,878,210 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.87 | $8,168,767,114 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.87 | $8,168,767,114 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.87 | $8,168,767,114 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.88 | $8,168,778,210 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.87 | $8,168,767,114 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.88 | $8,168,778,210 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.87 | $8,168,767,114 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.88 | $8,168,778,210 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.70 | $7,965,532,880 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.87 | $8,168,767,114 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.87 | $8,168,767,114 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.87 | $8,168,767,114 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.59 | $7,863,283,670 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.87 | $8,168,767,114 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.87 | $8,168,767,114 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.87 | $8,168,767,114 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.87 | $8,168,767,114 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.87 | $8,168,767,114 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.87 | $8,168,767,114 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.62 | $7,897,968,008 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.62 | $7,897,968,008 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.62 | $7,897,968,008 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.62 | $7,897,968,008 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.62 | $7,897,968,008 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.62 | $7,897,968,008 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.62 | $7,897,968,008 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.62 | $7,897,968,008 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.62 | $7,897,968,008 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.62 | $7,897,968,008 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.62 | $7,897,968,008 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.62 | $7,897,968,008 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.62 | $7,897,968,008 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.62 | $7,897,968,008 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.59 | $7,897,968,008 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.69 | $11,622,985,500 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.69 | $11,622,985,500 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.69 | $11,622,985,500 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.69 | $11,622,985,500 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.69 | $11,622,985,500 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.81 | $11,611,386,813 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.81 | $11,611,386,813 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.81 | $11,611,386,813 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.81 | $11,611,386,813 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.81 | $11,611,386,813 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.81 | $11,611,386,813 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.86 | $11,567,466,056 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.86 | $11,567,466,056 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.86 | $11,567,466,056 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.86 | $11,567,466,056 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.86 | $11,567,466,056 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.86 | $11,567,466,056 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.86 | $11,567,466,056 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.86 | $11,567,466,056 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.86 | $11,567,466,056 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.86 | $11,567,466,056 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.86 | $11,567,466,056 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.86 | $11,567,466,056 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.86 | $11,567,466,056 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.86 | $11,567,466,056 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.86 | $11,567,466,056 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.86 | $11,567,466,056 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.86 | $11,567,466,056 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.86 | $11,567,466,056 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.86 | $11,567,466,056 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.86 | $11,567,466,056 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.86 | $11,567,466,056 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.86 | $11,567,466,056 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.86 | $11,567,466,056 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.86 | $11,567,466,056 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.86 | $11,567,466,056 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.86 | $11,567,466,056 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.86 | $11,567,466,056 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.86 | $11,567,466,056 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.89 | $11,553,783,850 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.89 | $11,553,783,850 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.89 | $11,553,783,850 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.89 | $11,553,783,850 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.89 | $11,553,783,850 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.89 | $11,553,783,850 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.89 | $11,553,783,850 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.89 | $11,553,783,850 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.85 | $11,534,385,700 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.85 | $11,534,385,700 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.85 | $11,534,385,700 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.85 | $11,534,385,700 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.85 | $11,534,385,700 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.85 | $11,534,385,700 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.85 | $11,534,385,700 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.85 | $11,534,385,700 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.86 | $11,524,630,200 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.86 | $11,524,630,200 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.86 | $11,524,630,200 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.86 | $11,524,630,200 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.86 | $11,524,630,200 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.85 | $11,519,259,682 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.85 | $11,519,259,682 | 7 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.