Somnigroup International (SGI)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$69.87+0.50%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SGI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 18.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 37.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SGI — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-08-26
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. Following the completion of the Merger, $1.5 billion in aggregate principal amount of Leggett & Platt's 3.50% Senior Notes due 2027, 4.40% Senior Notes due 2029 and 3.50% Senior Notes due 2051 (collectively, the "Leggett & Platt Notes"), remain outstanding, in each case, under the applicable indenture pursuant to which such series of Leggett & Platt Notes was issued. Each series…
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would show recovery and success after a decline in Q2.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 0% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth remains negative year over year.
Why it matters: Changing guidance could show changes in performance or market conditions. This affects investor trust and stock value.
Watch forManagement raises adjusted EPS guidance. It is now above $2.85 to $3.15.
Also watch forManagement lowers adjusted EPS guidance. It is now below $2.85 to $3.15.
Why it matters: Stabilizing sales at Mattress Firm is key for revenue growth. It shows how well management is doing.
Supportive ifMattress Firm same-store sales grow or stabilize after recent drops.
Worry ifMattress Firm same-store sales drop for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: Paying the dividend shows financial health. It shows a commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend is paid as scheduled, confirming cash flow strength.
Worry ifIf the dividend payment is delayed or canceled, it may show cash flow issues.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$187 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $338 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,728 loss on $10,000 · 37.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows strong cash flow and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe quarterly dividend stays at $0.17 or goes up in the next announcement.
Worry ifThe quarterly dividend is cut or stopped in the next announcement.
Why it matters: Changes in gross margins can show how well a company manages costs. This affects profits.
Watch forNorth America gross margin will improve. It will be above 61.1% in future quarters.
Also watch forNorth America gross margin drops below 57.9% in future quarters.
Why it matters: Better gross margins show improved cost management and pricing. This can lead to more profit.
Supportive ifGross margin in Tempur Sealy North America goes above 61.1%.
Worry ifGross margin in Tempur Sealy North America falls below 57.9%.
Why it matters: Gross margin trends show how well the company operates and sets prices.
Watch forGross margin improves to above 45% in Q2 2026.
Also watch forGross margin drops below 43%, showing possible cost issues.
Why it matters: Sales trends at Mattress Firm will show how well Somnigroup is handling its main retail channel. This is important amid market challenges.
Worry ifMattress Firm net sales decline more than 2.8% year-over-year in Q3.
Less concerning ifMattress Firm net sales increase year-over-year in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in sales may mean problems in operations. It could also mean higher costs, hurting finances.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains above $246 million.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations drops below $200 million.
Why it matters: This acquisition will help Somnigroup grow and work better.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will close by the end of Q3 2026. All approvals are secured.
Worry ifThe acquisition might be delayed. It may not get approvals from shareholders or regulators.