Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Surgery Partners, Inc. (SGRY)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$23.17+0.04%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.43 → 0.36 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SGRY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve Adjusted EBITDA of at least $530 million in 2026 | Surgery Partners aims for adjusted EBITDA of at least $530 million in 2026. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $530 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a healthcare operator with a growth-and-execution thesis, not a proven durable compounder today. The long-term thesis is intact, but its signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed as valuation weakened and progress against annual goals remains limited.
The available valuation evidence says SGRY is cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative and model confidence is low. The market setup is described as justified, with sector turbulence but not a full combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulence; the evidence does not show exactly what growth expectations are embedded.
Near term, revenue and adjusted EBITDA grew year over year in both reported quarters, but revenue growth slowed in Q2, and guidance remains reaffirmed rather than newly raised. Operating cash flow improved from Q1 to Q2, while net debt to EBITDA edged higher; the Idaho Falls disposition and related benefits have not yet demonstrated their full financial effect. Earnings are loss-making, recent surprises have been erratic, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful risk.
Over the next few quarters, the key test is whether SGRY delivers its 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance despite slower Q2 growth. The multi-year view also hinges on whether portfolio changes improve cash generation and reduce leverage, and whether sector results stay supportive. Weaker jobs data or guidance cuts could pressure the operating backdrop, while continued strength from healthcare peers would support sector momentum.
For the 1-to-3-year view, SGRY has encouraging recent results and a supportive sector backdrop, but losses, elevated risk, and unproven delivery on its financial plan keep the thesis mixed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company focuses on improving cash from operations despite recent declines. |
| Broken |
| Cash from operations remains below $50 million over next 4 quarters |
Cash from operations: $59.3M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Increase cash from operations above $50 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 202659,300,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue between $3.35 billion and $3.45 billion in 2026 | A primary condition in Surgery Partners, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is between $3.35 billion and $3.45 billion. | Intact | Revenue falls below $3.35 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $848.9M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: between $3.35 billion and $3.45 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 2026848,900,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.65 → $0.36 · observed estimates
$3.59B → $2.91B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.65 | $3,588,052,490 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.67 | $3,588,052,490 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.67 | $3,588,052,490 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.67 | $3,588,052,490 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.67 | $3,588,052,490 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.63 | $3,586,243,163 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.67 | $3,588,052,490 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.67 | $3,588,052,490 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.63 | $3,586,243,163 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.67 | $3,588,052,490 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.63 | $3,586,243,163 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.63 | $3,586,243,163 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.67 | $3,588,052,490 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.67 | $3,588,052,490 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.67 | $3,588,052,490 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.63 | $3,586,243,163 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.67 | $3,588,052,490 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.63 | $3,586,243,163 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.63 | $3,586,243,163 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.63 | $3,586,243,163 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.63 | $3,586,243,163 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.63 | $3,586,243,163 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.63 | $3,586,243,163 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.63 | $3,586,243,163 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.63 | $3,586,243,163 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.54 | $3,512,564,467 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.54 | $3,512,564,467 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.54 | $3,512,564,467 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.54 | $3,512,564,467 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.54 | $3,512,564,467 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.54 | $3,512,564,467 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.54 | $3,512,564,467 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.54 | $3,512,564,467 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.54 | $3,512,564,467 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.54 | $3,512,564,467 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.54 | $3,512,564,467 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.54 | $3,512,564,467 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.54 | $3,512,564,467 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.54 | $3,512,564,467 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.54 | $3,512,564,467 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.54 | $3,512,564,467 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.54 | $3,512,564,467 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.54 | $3,512,564,467 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.54 | $3,512,564,467 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.54 | $3,512,564,467 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.54 | $3,512,564,467 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.54 | $3,512,564,467 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.54 | $3,512,564,467 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.54 | $3,512,564,467 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.54 | $3,512,564,467 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.54 | $3,512,564,467 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.54 | $3,511,564,467 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.54 | $3,511,564,467 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.54 | $3,511,564,467 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.54 | $3,511,564,467 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.49 | $3,349,790,667 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.49 | $3,349,790,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.49 | $3,349,790,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.49 | $3,349,790,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.49 | $3,349,790,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.49 | $3,349,790,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.49 | $3,349,790,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.49 | $3,349,790,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.49 | $3,349,790,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.49 | $3,349,790,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.49 | $3,349,790,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.49 | $3,349,790,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.43 | $3,271,954,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.43 | $3,271,954,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.43 | $3,271,954,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.43 | $3,271,954,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.43 | $3,271,954,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.43 | $3,271,954,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.43 | $3,271,954,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.43 | $3,271,954,367 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.43 | $3,271,909,197 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.43 | $3,271,909,197 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.43 | $3,271,909,197 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.43 | $3,271,909,197 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.43 | $3,271,909,937 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.43 | $3,271,909,937 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.43 | $3,271,909,937 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.43 | $3,271,909,937 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.43 | $3,271,909,937 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.43 | $3,271,909,937 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.43 | $3,271,909,937 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.43 | $3,271,909,937 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.43 | $3,271,909,937 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.43 | $3,271,909,937 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.43 | $3,271,909,937 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.43 | $3,271,909,937 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.43 | $3,271,909,937 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.43 | $3,271,909,937 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.43 | $3,271,909,937 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.40 | $3,022,209,868 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.36 | $2,913,460,409 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.36 | $2,913,460,409 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.36 | $2,910,845,066 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.36 | $2,910,845,066 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.36 | $2,910,845,066 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.36 | $2,910,845,066 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.36 | $2,910,845,066 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.36 | $2,910,845,066 | 2 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 2 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.