Surgery Partners, Inc. (SGRY)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$23.17+0.04%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SGRY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -21.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -11.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 19 industry peers
SGRY — earnings miss
Dated 2026-03-02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 2, 2026, Surgery Partners, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing results for the fourth quarter and the full year ended December 31, 2025. See the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed "filed" for the purpose of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or other…
Why it matters: Q2 same-facility cases rose just 0.3%, while revenue per case rose 4.8%. More cases would show that growth reaches beyond higher revenue per case.
Supportive ifQ3 same-facility cases grow more than 0.3% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 same-facility cases stay at or below 0.3% year over year.
Why it matters: Management linked the sale to lower debt leverage, but leverage reached about 4.4x in Q2. A lower figure would show progress on that goal.
Supportive ifA later company report shows net debt to EBITDA below 4.4x.
Worry ifA later company report shows net debt to EBITDA at or above 4.4x.
Why it matters: Q2 EBITDA was $125.2 million, below $129.0 million a year earlier. A year-over-year gain would mark a return to growth in this measure.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is above $129.0 million, the level from a year earlier.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is $129.0 million or less.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$213 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $464 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,768 loss on $10,000 · 47.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.