Surgery Partners, Inc. (SGRY)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$14.26+0.64%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SGRY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -14.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 3.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 27 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SGRY — earnings miss
Dated 2026-03-02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 2, 2026, Surgery Partners, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing results for the fourth quarter and the full year ended December 31, 2025. See the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed "filed" for the purpose of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or other…
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how revenue is growing and how Adjusted EBITDA is doing.
Watch forQ2 2026 revenue exceeds $850 million, indicating strong growth.
Also watch forQ2 2026 revenue is under $800 million, showing ongoing problems.
Why it matters: If health care sector growth speeds up, it could boost Surgery Partners' performance.
Supportive ifHealth care sector revenue growth is speeding up to over 10% each year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth continues to slow below 8% year over year.
Why it matters: The company aims for $3.35B to $3.45B in revenue for 2026. Any change signals progress or challenges.
Worry ifRevenue guidance remains unchanged or is raised during the Q2 earnings call on August 4.
Less concerning ifRevenue guidance is lowered during the Q2 earnings call.
Why it matters: This sale is important for Surgery Partners. It helps them manage their assets and get cash.
Supportive ifThe sale will close after getting all approvals. It will bring in about $795 million.
Worry ifThe sale fails to close due to lack of necessary approvals or other conditions not being met.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$191 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $454 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,991 loss on $10,000 · 49.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how Surgery Partners is doing financially and what to expect.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue decline year over year.
Why it matters: Stable growth in same-facility revenue is key for long-term success. It shows how well they operate.
Supportive ifSame-facility revenue growth stays above 4% for two quarters in a row.
Worry ifSame-facility revenue growth drops below 3% for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: Closing this deal is important for Surgery Partners. It helps their portfolio and cash flow.
Supportive ifThe deal closes after it gets all approvals.
Worry ifThe transaction fails to close due to lack of approvals or other conditions.
Why it matters: This would indicate Surgery Partners is on track to meet its full-year EBITDA guidance.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is at least $130 million.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is less than $120 million.
Why it matters: Improved cash flow supports Surgery Partners' financial health and growth plans.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow exceeds $70 million in Q3.
Worry ifOperating cash flow falls below $50 million in Q3.