Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$0.83 → $0.83 · observed estimates
Star Holdings (SGU)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.15+0.38%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.83 → 0.83 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SGU yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Net income at least $108 million in 2026-Q2 | Net income grew from $36 million to $108 million. | Intact | Net income falls below $70 million in any quarter next year | Net income: $-27.989M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=108.3 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 2026-27,989,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$0.83 → $0.83 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 14, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a smaller-cap, operational improvement story with some support from sector momentum, rather than a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state, and confidence in the evidence is low.
SGU is assessed as cheap versus peers, while the model also indicates a modest expectations gap and low confidence. The weak execution record appears partly reflected in the valuation, but the evidence does not show that every business risk is priced in.
Near term, underlying operations remain the main concern: the latest reported quarter had an operating loss, despite management’s repeated focus on improvement. Service and installation revenue rose from its prior-year comparison, but the increase was limited; recent results are also below the industry cohort, while the risk label has eased to moderate.
The multi-year case depends on better operating results and continued progress in service and installation revenue, alongside disciplined acquisitions. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued strength or weakness among energy-sector bellwethers could either support or weaken the sector tailwind.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SGU’s thesis remains uncertain: modest signs of service growth and a supportive sector backdrop have not yet overcome fragile earnings quality and limited operating progress. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating income rose from $54 million to $157 million in one quarter. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below $100 million in any quarter next year |
Operating income: $-34.073M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=157.2 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 2026-34,073,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue decline no worse than -4% next 12 months | A supporting condition in Star Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is >=-4% YoY. | Intact | Revenue decline exceeds -6% YoY next year | Revenue growth: 17.16% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=-4% YoY. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 5, 202617.162929 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Repurchase up to 2 million common units as authorized | A supporting condition in Star Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is Repurchase authorization effective from Feb 24, 2026. | Intact | No buybacks executed by end of 2026 | Authorization effective Feb 24, 2026 vs target Feb 24, 2026 Board authorized 2.0 million unit repurchase effective Feb 24, 2026. No buyback execution data reported yet. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.53B → $1.53B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.83 | $1,535,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Monthly analyst history is unavailable.
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.