Star Holdings (SGU)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.10+0.46%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SGU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -34.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -10.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
Why it matters: Q3 volume fell 9.4% year over year, even with colder weather and added volume from deals. A rebound would ease concern about customer losses.
Supportive ifIn the Dec. 14 earnings release, fiscal Q4 heating oil and propane volume is above the prior-year quarter's level.
Worry ifFiscal Q4 heating oil and propane volume is down year over year again.
Why it matters: The Q3 Adjusted EBITDA loss grew by $7.1 million. Higher costs and lower heating volume outweighed stronger margins and service results.
Supportive ifFiscal Q4 Adjusted EBITDA loss is smaller than the Q3 loss of $17.7 million.
Worry ifFiscal Q4 Adjusted EBITDA loss is at least $17.7 million.
Why it matters: Deals added heating volume in the first nine months. No deal closed in Q3, so another pause would leave less support from acquired volume.
Watch forThe company announces or completes an acquisition. It reports that the deal added heating volume.
Also watch forThe Dec. 14 results report no completed acquisition and no added volume from deals.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$47 on $10,000 · ±0.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $153 loss on $10,000 · 1.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $823 loss on $10,000 · 8.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.