Star Holdings (SGU)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$12.74-0.86%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SGU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -61.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -28.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 33.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: Net income trends show the company's financial health and how well it operates.
Supportive ifNet income increases year over year by more than 10% in Q3.
Worry ifNet income decreases or grows less than 10% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: An increase shows management cares about giving value to shareholders. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifQuarterly distribution per unit goes up from $0.1975 in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNo increase in quarterly distribution or a decrease.
Why it matters: A rebound in revenue growth could indicate a sector recovery. This may positively impact Star Holdings.
Watch forSector revenue growth picks up to above 3% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth remains below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Continued growth in operating income shows that the company is managing costs well. It can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifOperating income for Q3 increases year over year by more than 20%.
Worry ifOperating income for Q3 declines year over year or grows by less than 10%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$69 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $158 loss on $10,000 · 1.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $823 loss on $10,000 · 8.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Improving sector revenue growth could signal a shift from a mature phase to growth.
Watch forSector revenue growth exceeds 3% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth remains below 1% year over year.
Why it matters: A larger decline in sales would signal worsening customer attrition and demand issues. This could impact revenue and profits.
Worry ifHome heating oil and propane sales decline more than 9.4% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifSales decline less than 9.4% or show signs of recovery.
Why it matters: A bigger loss shows ongoing problems. This can hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA loss is over $17.7 million.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA loss is less than or equal to $17.7 million.
Why it matters: ConocoPhillips has a strong RFP status. This may show market trends that affect Star Holdings. How peers perform can change how investors feel.
Watch forConocoPhillips shows strong earnings growth or gives good guidance.
Also watch forConocoPhillips shows weak earnings or gives bad guidance.
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows better cost control and profit. This can boost investor trust.
Supportive ifOperating income rises from $157.2 million in 2026-Q2 to over $160 million next quarter.
Worry ifOperating income falls or stays under $157.2 million next quarter.
Why it matters: Stable loss rates mean better customer retention. This helps operations run smoothly.
Supportive ifNet customer attrition rate remains below 1% for the next quarter.
Worry ifAttrition rate goes above 1%.
Why it matters: Acquisitions can increase growth and market share. This affects future revenue.
Supportive ifManagement announces a new purchase in the home heating sector.
Worry ifNo acquisitions are announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Updates on the buyback program show that management trusts the company's value.
Supportive ifManagement plans to increase the buyback program by more than 2 million units.
Worry ifNo updates or a decrease in the buyback program.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show management believes in the stock. It shows they want to return cash to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company reports actual share repurchases in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo share repurchases reported in Q3.
Why it matters: Better performance here could boost profits and growth.
Supportive ifService and installation profits show a clear increase each quarter.
Worry ifProfits in service and installation go down or stay the same.