Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Sotera Health (SHC)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-04
$15.87-3.17%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.07 → 1.07 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SHC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain improved capital allocation with refinancing | It improved capital allocation by refinancing debt at lower costs. | Intact | Capital costs rise or refinancing benefits reverse | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SHC is a steady-growth healthcare business with robust earnings quality and strong recent performance. Its multi-year view remains intact, but the signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable, and the new CEO’s execution is still being watched.
The evidence labels valuation as stretched, despite also describing SHC as cheap versus peers, so the relative valuation picture is mixed. Expectations appear elevated, while the low fragility rating suggests no specific fragility warning has been triggered.
Near term, management’s raised 2026 outlook points to continued revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, following a recent earnings beat. Higher capital spending and the CEO transition need monitoring, while a guidance reversal or weaker demand could challenge execution.
Over the next few quarters, the key test is whether management sustains growth and avoids cutting its recently raised guidance. A weakening jobs trend could pressure cyclical healthcare businesses, while continued strength from sector peers could support the broader healthcare backdrop.
For the 1- to 3-year view, SHC’s operating thesis remains intact, but the mixed valuation evidence and execution risks temper the picture. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company keeps earnings near $1.00 per share in 2026. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $0.81 per share in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $0.20 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.93 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 20260.2 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Successful leadership transition with new CEO | A supporting condition in Sotera Health's published investment case. The stated target is Smooth transition and strategic progress. | Intact | Leadership issues disrupt strategy or execution | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue near $1.23B in FY26 | A primary condition in Sotera Health's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.23 billion. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1.16 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $324.886M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.23 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 2026324,886,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.06 → $1.07 · observed estimates
$1.31B → $1.31B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.06 | $1,313,746,343 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.06 | $1,314,482,390 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.06 | $1,314,482,390 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.06 | $1,314,482,390 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.06 | $1,314,482,390 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.06 | $1,314,482,390 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.06 | $1,313,746,343 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.06 | $1,314,482,390 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.06 | $1,313,746,343 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.06 | $1,314,482,390 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.06 | $1,313,746,343 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.06 | $1,314,482,390 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.06 | $1,314,482,390 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.06 | $1,313,746,343 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.07 | $1,319,901,020 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.07 | $1,319,901,020 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.07 | $1,319,901,020 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.06 | $1,313,746,345 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.07 | $1,320,938,470 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.06 | $1,313,746,345 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.06 | $1,313,746,345 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.06 | $1,313,746,345 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.06 | $1,313,746,345 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.06 | $1,313,746,345 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.06 | $1,313,746,345 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.07 | $1,320,918,145 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.08 | $1,320,919,256 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.08 | $1,320,919,256 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.08 | $1,320,919,256 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.08 | $1,320,919,256 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.08 | $1,320,919,256 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.08 | $1,320,919,256 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.08 | $1,320,919,256 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.08 | $1,320,919,256 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.07 | $1,320,487,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.07 | $1,320,487,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.07 | $1,320,487,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.07 | $1,320,487,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.07 | $1,320,487,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.07 | $1,320,487,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.07 | $1,320,487,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.07 | $1,320,487,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.07 | $1,320,487,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.07 | $1,320,487,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.07 | $1,320,487,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.07 | $1,320,487,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.07 | $1,320,487,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.07 | $1,320,153,928 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.07 | $1,320,153,928 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.07 | $1,320,153,928 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.07 | $1,320,153,928 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.07 | $1,320,153,928 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.07 | $1,320,153,928 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.07 | $1,320,153,928 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.07 | $1,314,639,619 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.