Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-02 · fmp
Shimmick Corp (SHIM)
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.39-6.64%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.38 → 0.38 EPS · FY ending Jan 2, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SHIM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve $15M-$30M Adjusted EBITDA in 2026 | Adjusted EBITDA target is $15M to $30M. | Intact | adjusted EBITDA falls below $15 million in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We are reaffirming our full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $15 million to $30 million, which at the midpoint represents approximately 4 350% improvement over the prior year,” said Todd Yoder, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.” “Adjusted EBITDA is projected in the range of $15 million to $30 million for the full year 2026, an increase of 200% to 500% year over year,” said Todd Yoder, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-02 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment represents a turnaround scenario. SHIM is currently loss-making and has shown weak recent financial performance, which raises concerns about its ability to meet growth targets in the near term.
The market appears to be pricing in a significant level of risk, given SHIM's loss-making status and high risk label. Expectations may be low due to the company's recent performance, which sits below its industry peers.
Management has set ambitious goals for revenue and Adjusted EBITDA, but the recent changes in risk and financial performance suggest challenges ahead. The probability of missing targets is notable, especially given the company's smaller size and recent history of misses.
The future performance of SHIM will depend on its ability to meet its revenue and EBITDA targets, as well as the performance of sector bellwethers like PWR, FIX, and EME. Any negative guidance or performance from these companies could adversely affect SHIM.
In the next 1 to 3 years, SHIM's outlook is clouded by high risk and weak fundamentals, making it a situation to monitor closely. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Backlog rising to support revenue growth | Backlog is rising, supporting growth. | Intact | backlog falls below $900 million during 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Manage dilution and debt from share offering and debt issuance | A supporting condition in Shimmick Corp's published investment case. The stated target is No further dilutive offerings beyond 3.73M shares in 2026. | Intact | additional large dilutive offerings or debt issuance announced | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve $550M-$600M revenue in 2026 | A primary condition in Shimmick Corp's published investment case. The stated target is >= $550 million. | Intact | annual revenue falls below $550 million in 2026 | Revenue: $106.616M FY2028-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $550 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 2026106,616,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.41 → $0.38 · observed estimates
$0.60B → $0.60B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.41 | $600,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.41 | $600,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.41 | $600,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.41 | $600,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.41 | $600,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.41 | $600,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.41 | $600,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.41 | $600,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.41 | $600,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.41 | $600,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.41 | $600,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.41 | $600,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.41 | $600,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.41 | $600,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.41 | $600,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.41 | $600,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.41 | $600,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.41 | $600,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.41 | $600,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.41 | $600,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.41 | $600,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.41 | $600,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.41 | $600,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.41 | $600,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.41 | $600,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.04 | $499,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.38 | $601,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.