Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. (SHLS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-11-04
$9.16+8.15%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.55 → 0.56 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SHLS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
CAPEX between $20M-$30M in 2026 | A supporting condition in Shoals Technologies Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 20-30 USD_MILLIONS. | Intact | CAPEX exceeds $30M in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $7.015M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 20-30 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 20267,015,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented clean-energy equipment business, not a proven durable compounder: recent revenue growth is strong, while earnings quality is fragile and risk is high. The multi-year view remains intact, but evidence is limited and confidence is medium.
The valuation model describes SHLS as cheap versus peers, while its measured premium versus peers is 0.57, so the signals are mixed. The priced-in tag is justified, with low fragility concentration and an expectations gap of -0.4; the evidence does not point to a clear valuation bargain or to excessive expectations.
Near term, revenue growth has been strong: second-quarter revenue rose 47.4% year over year, and management reaffirmed its 2026 revenue range. Cash flow from operations improved from negative in the first quarter to positive in the second, but remains short of the full-year goal so far; capital spending progress is also mixed because actual spending data is not provided. High risk and fragile earnings quality remain concerns, and a guidance cut would weaken the business outlook.
Over the next year, the key test is whether revenue growth continues and full-year cash-flow guidance becomes more achievable. A guidance cut is a meaningful negative scenario. Rate cuts or steadier results and guidance from sector peers could improve the backdrop, but neither is established in the evidence.
For the next one to three years, SHLS presents a growth thesis with an intact recent operating case, but execution risk and cash-flow delivery remain important uncertainties. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Revised Full-Year 2026 Outlook Based on current business conditions, business trends and other factors, for the full year 2026, the Company now expects: • Revenue in the range of $665 million to $685 million; • Adjusted EBITDA 1 in the range of $129 million to $133 million; • Cash flow from operations in the range of $55 million to $65 million; • Capital expenditures in the range of $20 million to $30 million; and • Interest expense in the range of $11 million to $13 million.” “With the move into our new facility complete, our focus today is on the customer; delivering quality solutions, on time, with market-leading customer service.”
Cash flow from operations $65M-$85M in 2026 | The company targets $65 million to $85 million in cash flow from operations. | Intact | Cash flow from operations falls below $65M in FY26 | Free cash flow: $-207,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 65-85 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 2026-207,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Revised Full-Year 2026 Outlook Based on current business conditions, business trends and other factors, for the full year 2026, the Company now expects: • Revenue in the range of $665 million to $685 million; • Adjusted EBITDA 1 in the range of $129 million to $133 million; • Cash flow from operations in the range of $55 million to $65 million; • Capital expenditures in the range of $20 million to $30 million; and • Interest expense in the range of $11 million to $13 million.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue reaches $600M-$640M in 2026 | A primary condition in Shoals Technologies Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 600-640 USD_MILLIONS. | Intact | Revenue falls below $600M in FY26 | Revenue: $195.308M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 600-640 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026195,308,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.51 → $0.56 · observed estimates
$0.68B → $0.70B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.51 | $680,664,970 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.51 | $680,664,970 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.51 | $680,664,970 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.51 | $680,664,970 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.51 | $680,664,970 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.51 | $680,664,970 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.51 | $680,664,970 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.51 | $680,664,970 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.52 | $682,652,099 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.51 | $680,664,970 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.52 | $682,652,099 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.52 | $682,652,099 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.52 | $682,652,099 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.52 | $682,652,099 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.55 | $697,465,440 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.55 | $697,465,440 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.55 | $698,838,080 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.55 | $698,838,080 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.55 | $698,838,080 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.55 | $698,838,080 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.55 | $698,838,080 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.55 | $698,838,080 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.55 | $698,838,080 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.55 | $698,838,080 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.55 | $698,838,080 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.55 | $698,838,896 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.55 | $699,700,008 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.55 | $699,700,008 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.55 | $699,700,008 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.55 | $699,700,008 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.56 | $700,314,008 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.56 | $700,314,008 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.56 | $700,314,008 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.56 | $698,443,420 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.56 | $698,443,420 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.56 | $698,443,420 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.56 | $698,443,420 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.56 | $697,102,243 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.56 | $698,572,832 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.56 | $698,572,832 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.56 | $698,572,832 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.56 | $698,572,832 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.56 | $698,591,232 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.56 | $698,591,232 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.56 | $700,127,334 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.56 | $700,127,334 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.56 | $700,127,334 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.56 | $700,127,334 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.56 | $700,127,334 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.56 | $700,127,334 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.56 | $700,127,334 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.56 | $700,127,334 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.56 | $700,127,334 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.56 | $700,127,334 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.56 | $700,127,334 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.56 | $700,127,334 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.56 | $700,127,334 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.56 | $700,127,334 | 10 / 13 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.