Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. (SHLS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-11-04
$9.16+8.15%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SHLS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SHLS — litigation filed
Dated 2026-11-04
and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise subject to liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “ Securities Act ”), except as expressly set forth in such filing. FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS This communication contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of t…
Why it matters: Shoals guided to Q3 revenue of $150 million to $170 million. A miss would put its $600 million to $640 million 2026 goal at risk.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $150 million, or the company cuts its 2026 revenue range below $600 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue is at least $150 million, and the company keeps its 2026 revenue range at $600 million to $640 million.
Why it matters: The full-year cash flow goal is $65 million to $85 million. Cash flow was negative $41.4 million in Q1 and positive $6.8 million in Q2.
Watch forFull-year cash flow from operations reaches at least $65 million, within the stated range.
Also watch forThe company cuts its $65 million minimum or full-year cash flow falls below $65 million.
Why it matters: Q2 gross margin fell to 30.3% from 37.2% a year earlier. Shoals cited plant start-up issues, product quality costs, and material waste.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin is below 30%, or the company reports more rework and plant start-up costs.
Less concerning ifQ3 gross margin is above 30%, with lower rework costs and fewer plant start-up issues.
Why it matters: Backlog rose 19.4% from a year ago and 5.7% from the prior quarter. More growth would support demand, but some orders are not yet signed.
Supportive ifAt the next report, backlog and awarded orders exceed $801.4 million. Signed orders drive the increase.
Worry ifBacklog and awarded orders fall below $801.4 million. Or the company reports delays or canceled orders.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$346 on $10,000 · ±3.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $751 loss on $10,000 · 7.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,753 loss on $10,000 · 47.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The new plant move and product quality costs cut Q2 gross margin. The next report can show whether those costs are easing.
Watch forOn November 4, Shoals reports lower plant start-up and product rework costs, with gross margin above 30.3%.
Also watch forOn November 4, Shoals reports ongoing plant or quality costs, with gross margin at or below 30.3%.