Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. (SHLS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-09-04
$7.13+1.42%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SHLS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -26.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 13.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 40.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SHLS — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-31
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 28, 2026, Shoals Technologies Group, Inc., as borrower, and certain of its subsidiaries entered into Amendment No. 8 (the “Amendment”) to the Credit Agreement, dated as of November 25, 2020, with Wilmington Trust, National Association, as Collateral Agent, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as Administrative Agent, and each L/C issuer and lender from time to time party thereto. The Amendment, among other things, provides that maintaining deposit a…
Why it matters: Keeping CAPEX in this range shows good spending and helps growth plans.
Supportive ifCAPEX reported between $20M and $30M.
Worry ifCAPEX reported above $30M.
Why it matters: Changes can impact financial options and how money is spent.
Watch forNews of good terms or more credit available.
Also watch forNews of tougher terms or less credit available.
Why it matters: A bigger backlog means strong demand in the future. It also shows better operations.
Supportive ifBacklog was over $801.4 million.
Worry ifBacklog was under $758 million.
Why it matters: Backlog growth indicates strong future demand for Shoals' products and supports revenue growth.
Supportive ifBacklog growth reported above 17.5% YoY.
Worry ifBacklog growth reported below 17.5% YoY.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$401 on $10,000 · ±4.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $736 loss on $10,000 · 7.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,753 loss on $10,000 · 47.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows the company is running well and reaching its goals.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations reported above -$30M.
Worry ifCash flow from operations reported worse than -$41M.
Why it matters: A steady or better gross margin shows good cost control and product quality. It means the company runs efficiently.
Supportive ifGross profit margin stays above 30%.
Worry ifGross profit margin falls below 30%.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows good cost control and efficient operations.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA reported at $37 million or more.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA was less than $32 million.
Why it matters: A bigger backlog means strong future revenue. It shows that demand for Shoals' products will stay high.
Supportive ifBacklog and awarded orders grow to more than $801 million.
Worry ifBacklog and awarded orders decline or remain flat.
Why it matters: Falling below this range would signal weaker demand and hurt growth expectations.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $150 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue reported above $170 million.
Why it matters: A slowdown in backlog growth could indicate weakening demand for Shoals' products.
Worry ifBacklog growth is less than 5% from last quarter.
Less concerning ifBacklog growth is more than 10% from last quarter.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means the company is more efficient. It also shows stronger finances.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations reported at $20 million or more.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is negative or under $6 million.
Why it matters: Spending more than this may show financial problems or poor resource use.
Worry ifSpending is above $30 million.
Less concerning ifSpending is below $20 million.