Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc. (SHO)
NYSEReal EstateReit - Hotel & MotelSnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.01+1.32%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - Hotel & MotelSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.23 → 0.25 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SHO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Net debt and preferred equity to EBITDA ratio near 4.7x | A supporting condition in Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~4.7x. | Intact | Leverage ratio rises above 5.5x in 2026-Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a hotel real estate recovery and operating-improvement thesis, rather than a proven durable compounder. The thesis is on watch: recent momentum has improved, but financial performance remains below its industry cohort and confidence is medium.
Valuation is expensive versus peers, with a stretched pricing tag and an expectations gap of 0.23. Fragility is rated low because the concern is weak execution quality, not a broader combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulence.
Near-term results have shown improvement: second-quarter RevPAR and adjusted EBITDAre were higher than in the fourth quarter, and management raised its 2026 RevPAR growth guidance. Management is on track with capital improvements and shareholder returns, but earnings quality remains fragile and the company has missed in recent quarters. The near-term miss risk is described as low, though the industry has a high miss rate.
The multi-year view depends on continued growth in hotel operating performance and management maintaining its recent guidance increase. A guidance reversal would damage credibility, while Fed rate cuts could support rate-sensitive real estate companies. Weak results or guidance from hotel peers could also remove a helpful sector backdrop.
SHO’s operating momentum has strengthened, but its expensive valuation and fragile execution record keep the 1-to-3-year thesis conditional. The main tests are sustaining operating gains and maintaining guidance as sector conditions shift. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $95M to $115M. |
| Intact |
| Capital investment falls below $95 million in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company currently expects to invest approximately $105 million to $115 million into its portfolio in 2026.” “The Company currently expects to invest approximately $95 million to $115 million into its portfolio in 2026, with a majority of the investment related to the completion of the meeting space at Hilton San Diego Bayfront, renovation work at Oceans Edge Resort & Marina, storm-related restoration work at Wailea Beach Resort, and various other projects across the remaining hotels in the portfolio.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Return capital via $0.09 quarterly dividends and $49 million stock repurchases in 2026-Q1 | The company returns cash with $49 million in stock buybacks and $0.09 dividends per share. | Intact | Dividend falls below $0.09 per share or repurchases under $49 million in 2026-Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Adjusted EBITDAre at least $238 million in 2026 | Profit growth is strong with adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to $238 million. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDAre falls below $238 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “This range is $4.0 million higher than the Company’s prior estimate.” “ Mr. Giglia continued, “We remain committed to addressing the valuation discount at which we trade and realizing the embedded value of our portfolio for our shareholders.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Total revenue reaches about $237.5 million in 2026 | Revenue is rising, guided to about $237.5 million in 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $225 million in FY26 | Revenue: $277.109M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$237.5 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026277,109,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.20 → $0.25 · observed estimates
$0.99B → $0.96B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.20 | $985,003,860 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.20 | $985,003,860 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.20 | $985,003,860 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.20 | $985,003,860 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.20 | $985,003,860 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.20 | $985,251,410 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.20 | $985,251,410 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.19 | $972,801,671 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.19 | $972,801,671 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.19 | $972,801,671 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.19 | $972,801,671 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.20 | $976,583,510 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.20 | $976,583,510 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.19 | $972,801,671 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.10 | $980,665,680 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.10 | $980,665,680 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.10 | $980,665,680 | 1 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.19 | $972,801,671 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.19 | $972,801,671 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.19 | $972,801,671 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.19 | $972,801,671 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.19 | $972,801,671 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.19 | $972,801,671 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.19 | $972,801,671 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.19 | $972,801,671 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.23 | $954,072,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.23 | $954,072,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.23 | $955,053,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.23 | $955,053,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.23 | $955,053,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.23 | $955,053,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.23 | $955,053,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.23 | $955,053,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.23 | $955,053,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.23 | $955,053,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.23 | $946,170,503 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.23 | $946,170,503 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.23 | $946,170,503 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.23 | $946,170,503 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.23 | $946,170,503 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.23 | $946,170,503 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.23 | $946,170,503 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.23 | $946,170,503 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.23 | $946,170,503 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.23 | $946,170,503 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.23 | $946,170,503 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.23 | $946,170,503 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.23 | $948,153,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.24 | $954,973,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.24 | $954,973,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.24 | $954,973,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.24 | $954,973,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.24 | $954,973,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.24 | $954,973,452 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.24 | $955,300,152 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.24 | $957,466,075 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.24 | $957,466,075 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.24 | $957,466,075 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.24 | $955,545,895 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.24 | $955,545,895 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.24 | $955,545,895 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.24 | $954,557,751 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.25 | $955,159,506 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.25 | $955,159,506 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.25 | $955,159,506 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.25 | $955,159,506 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.25 | $955,159,506 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.25 | $955,159,506 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.25 | $955,159,506 | 3 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.