Sherwin-Williams (SHW)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$333.71+0.44%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SHW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 32.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers
SHW — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-09
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 9, 2026, The Sherwin-Williams Company (“Sherwin-Williams”) entered into that certain Amendment No. 11 to the Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (“Amendment No. 11”) with Goldman Sachs Bank USA (“Goldman”), as administrative agent, Goldman Sachs Mortgage Company (“GSMC”), as issuing bank, and the lenders party thereto. Amendment No. 11 amends that certain Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of August 2, 2021 (as amended, the “C…
Why it matters: The next earnings report will show performance and market conditions. It will affect investors.
Watch forThe Q2 2026 earnings report shows better results than expected. This shows strong performance.
Also watch forQ2 2026 earnings report shows worse results than expected, showing ongoing problems.
Why it matters: Keeping EPS guidance shows confidence in making money. This impacts how investors feel.
Supportive ifAdjusted diluted net income per share remains within the range of $11.50 to $11.90 for 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted net income per share falls below the range of $11.50 to $11.90 for 2026.
Why it matters: World events can change how customers feel and what they want to buy.
Worry ifManagement says there is no big negative effect from world events on demand.
Less concerning ifManagement reports a clear drop in demand because of world events.
Why it matters: Management raised EPS guidance. This shows they are confident in making more money. Changes could mean problems.
Watch forAdjusted diluted EPS guidance is now $11.80 to $12.20.
Also watch forAdjusted diluted EPS guidance is now below $11.50.
Why it matters: Successful price increases can help offset rising costs and maintain margins. It shows how well the company can adapt to market pressures.
Supportive ifManagement says price increases have worked. They have made margins better.
Worry ifManagement says price increases have not worked or did not improve margins.
Why it matters: Successful price increases can help cover rising costs and make more money.
Supportive ifGross margin goes up from last quarter due to price increases.
Worry ifGross margin goes down even with price increases.
Why it matters: An 8% price increase in Paint Stores Group is set for September. Its impact on margins will show pricing power.
Supportive ifGross margins improve following the September price increase.
Worry ifGross margins decline despite the September price increase.
Why it matters: Management expects Q3 net sales to grow mid to high-single digits. This shows demand strength.
Supportive ifManagement says Q3 net sales will grow by mid to high-single digits from Q3 2025.
Worry ifManagement cuts Q3 net sales guidance to low single digits or less.
Why it matters: The new CFO's plan may change financial stability and growth plans.
Watch forGood changes in financial performance or strategy happen after the new CFO starts.
Also watch forNo clear improvements or bad changes happen after the new CFO starts.
Why it matters: Raw material costs have been a pressure point. Trends in Q3 will indicate if inflation is stabilizing or worsening.
Worry ifRaw material costs stabilize or decrease in Q3.
Less concerning ifRaw material costs went up a lot in Q3.
Why it matters: Watching raw material costs is important to see margin pressures. High costs can hurt profits even if sales grow.
Worry ifRaw material costs stabilize or drop, which helps margins improve.
Less concerning ifRaw material costs rise a lot, causing gross margins to fall.
Why it matters: An 8% price increase is set for September 1. This helps offset inflation and supports margins.
Supportive ifThe Paint Stores Group raises prices by 8% and keeps its customers.
Worry ifSales in the Paint Stores Group drop a lot after the price increase.
Why it matters: Same-store sales growth was 4.2% in Q2. This indicates underlying demand trends.
Watch forSame-store sales growth exceeds 4% in Q3 compared to Q3 2025.
Also watch forSame-store sales growth falls below 2% in Q3 compared to Q3 2025.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$124 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $268 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,155 loss on $10,000 · 21.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.