Sherwin-Williams (SHW)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
$349.01-3.99%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SHW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 43.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 39.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SHW — credit agreement
Dated 2026-11-02
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On November 2, 2026, The Sherwin-Williams Company (“Sherwin-Williams”) entered into that certain Amendment No. 2 to the Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (“Amendment No. 2”) with Citicorp USA, Inc. (“CUSA”), as administrative agent and issuing bank, and the lenders party thereto. Amendment No. 2 amends that certain Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of November 17, 2025 (the “Credit Agreement”), among Sherwin-Williams, CUSA, as admi…
Why it matters: Sherwin-Williams signed a new short-term loan and a €100 million loan due in 2027. More borrowing may add interest costs.
Worry ifThe next filing shows higher debt or interest expense, or an extension of the €100 million loan beyond September 2027.
Less concerning ifThe next filing shows lower debt and interest expense, with no added loan extension.
Why it matters: The sector signal says materials revenue has been shrinking, with early signs of a possible change. Positive growth would support a firmer backdrop.
Supportive ifThe materials sector's three-year revenue growth turns positive.
Worry ifThe materials sector's three-year revenue growth stays at or below zero.
Why it matters: Q3 gross margin fell to 47.8% from 49.2%. Management cited higher material and supply costs, plus mix.
Supportive ifQuarterly gross margin rises above 49.2%, the Q3 2025 level.
Worry ifGross margin stays at or below 47.8%, the Q3 2026 level.
Why it matters: Management guided to mid-single-digit sales growth in Q4. A miss would weaken the case that share gains can offset muted demand.
Worry ifQ4 2026 net sales grow less than 5% year over year, below the guided mid-single-digit range.
Less concerning ifQ4 net sales grow within or above the guided mid-single-digit range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$132 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $271 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,119 loss on $10,000 · 21.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q3 Paint Stores sales grew on price and low-single-digit volume gains. Falling volume would point to weaker customer demand.
Worry ifThe next reported Paint Stores volume is down year over year, while same-store sales growth falls below 3%.
Less concerning ifPaint Stores volume stays positive year over year and same-store sales growth remains at or above 3%.