Sidus Space Inc (SIDU)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.07-2.36%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SIDU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 853.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -18.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 871.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 56 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SIDU — debt issuance
Dated 2026-02-26
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 26, 2026, Sidus Space, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an ATM sales agreement (the “Sales Agreement”) with ThinkEquity LLC (the “Sales Agent”), pursuant to which the Company may offer and sell, from time to time (the “Offering”) through the Sales Agent, shares (the “Shares”) of the Company’s Class A common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “Common Stock”), up to a maximum amount as set forth in the Sales Agreement, subject to the…
Why it matters: The launch of Fortis VPX would help Sidus earn regular revenue.
Supportive ifManagement says Fortis VPX will be ready for sale in early 2027.
Worry ifFortis VPX will not be available for sale until after early 2027.
Why it matters: A decline in cash could signal financial strain and impact the company's growth plans.
Worry ifCash position remains above $20 million after Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifCash position falls below $20 million by the end of Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A smaller loss shows better cost control and running efficiency.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA loss in Q3 is reported at less than $4 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA loss is still over $4 million. This shows ongoing money issues.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows the company can attract new customers and follow its plan.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 50% compared to Q2 2025.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is below 30% compared to Q2 2025.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$473 on $10,000 · ±4.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,330 loss on $10,000 · 13.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,290 loss on $10,000 · 72.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Successful capital raises can help with cash and support growth. Poor interest may worry investors.
Watch forThe capital raise is fully subscribed. It gets good feedback from investors.
Also watch forThe capital raise has trouble attracting investors. It may also offer big discounts.
Why it matters: If Sidus integrates with Maris-Tech, it will enhance its technology. This can help win future contracts.
Supportive ifThe integration with Maris-Tech is done and has been announced.
Worry ifIf integration has delays or problems, it may affect future projects.
Why it matters: This shows Sidus Space is moving towards steady income after recent drops.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue is over $600,000. This shows successful efforts to make money.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is under $600,000. This suggests ongoing problems in making money.
Why it matters: Revenue from Fortis VPX would show progress in turning technology into cash flow. This is key for the company's growth.
Supportive ifFortis VPX makes at least $1 million from commercial contracts.
Worry ifNo revenue from Fortis VPX by the end of Q4 2026.
Why it matters: A good transition to the new CFO could help with finances and support growth.
Supportive ifAlan Khalili is using financial strategies. These help improve cash flow and efficiency.
Worry ifIf the CFO transition causes problems, it may lead to financial issues.
Why it matters: Better gross margins will show the company is controlling costs while growing. This is important for financial health.
Supportive ifGross margins improve to above 20% in the next quarter.
Worry ifGross margins remain below 10% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: This shows a good shift from tech development to making regular money.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue exceeds $600,000, showing strong demand for LizzieSat and Fortis VPX.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is still under $600,000. This shows problems in selling products.
Why it matters: A smooth transition for the new CFO could enhance financial management and support growth strategies. This is vital for long-term stability.
Supportive ifLook for good news on financial plans and cost management within three months of Alan Khalili's start.
Worry ifWatch for delays in financial reports or more problems after the CFO change.
Why it matters: If it works well, it helps Sidus's digital mission computing platform grow.
Supportive ifFortis VPX is fully working on LizzieSat-4 by the end of Q3.
Worry ifDelays or problems in integration are reported. This slows down sales efforts.
Why it matters: Better cash flow would indicate that the company is managing its expenses effectively. This is vital for future growth.
Supportive ifQ2 cash flow from operations turns positive after being negative in Q1.
Worry ifQ2 cash flow from operations remains negative or worsens from Q1 levels.
Why it matters: The industrials sector is slowing down. If it re-accelerates, it may benefit Sidus Space's growth.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is getting closer to its highs.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is slowing down. It keeps getting weaker.
Why it matters: A smooth transition for the new CFO can strengthen financial operations and support growth plans.
Watch forThe new CFO has a plan. It improves financial performance in three months.
Also watch forThe new CFO's strategies cause more financial problems. They also delay growth plans.
Why it matters: More capital raises show the company is financially healthy and supports growth. This helps operations.
Supportive ifThe company will raise at least $50 million in new capital.
Worry ifNo new capital raises announced by the end of Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Better margins mean better cost control and efficiency.
Supportive ifGross profit margin improves from the previous quarter's loss of $630,000.
Worry ifGross profit margin falls or stays the same, showing ongoing cost issues.