Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Signet Jewelers (SIG)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$121.92-5.05%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
13.74 → 13.63 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SIG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA stays between $655 million and $745 million in fiscal 2027 | Profit margins improve with adjusted EBITDA near $700 million. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $655 million in fiscal 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SIG is a performance-recovery and execution story, not a clearly durable compounder yet. Its multi-year view is intact, with recent results holding in the top half of its industry, but earnings quality remains fragile.
The valuation evidence is mixed: SIG is described as cheap versus peers, yet it also carries a 74% premium to peers and an expectations gap of -0.17. The evidence labels the pricing as justified because weak execution quality is not joined by the full combination of expensive valuation and turbulent conditions.
Near term, revenue and margins have improved: quarterly revenue was about $1.54 billion and $1.53 billion, same-store sales growth rose from 1.8% to 2.2%, and adjusted operating income increased. Management has raised its FY27 adjusted EBITDA guidance range, while the FY26 free-cash-flow goal remains a watch item and recent momentum has weakened.
The multi-year thesis depends on sustaining revenue growth and margin expansion, delivering the FY26 free-cash-flow goal, and meeting the higher FY27 profitability guidance. A guidance cut after the recent raise would damage credibility, while continued strength or weakness among sector bellwethers could support or weaken the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SIG’s improving operating results support an intact thesis, but fragile earnings quality, fading momentum, and a demanding peer valuation make execution the key test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Signet Jewelers grows revenue to about $6.8 billion in fiscal 2027. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $9.2 in fiscal 2027 |
Diluted EPS: $1.33 per share FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$10.1. Target period ends 2027-01-28; this observation covers 2027-Q2. Sep 9, 20261.33 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Free cash flow exceeds $500 million in fiscal 2026 | Free cash flow exceeds $500 million in fiscal 2026. | Intact | Free cash flow falls below $500 million in fiscal 2026 | Free cash flow: $30.8M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $500M. Target period ends 2026-01-31; this observation covers 2027-Q2. Sep 9, 202630,800,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in a supplied disclosure. Management reported: “Our operating performance and continued focus on working capital management we expect will deliver more than $500 million in free cash flow in FY26," said Joan Hilson, Chief Operating and Financial Officer.” “Signet's Board of Directors has also approved the expansion of the remaining repurchase authorization by approximately $385 million to a total of $700 million, reflecting excess liquidity and consistent free cash conversion.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue reaches about $6.8 billion in fiscal 2027 | Signet Jewelers grows revenue to about $6.8 billion in fiscal 2027. | Intact | Revenue falls below $6.6 billion in fiscal 2027 | Revenue: $1.528B FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$6.8B. Target period ends 2027-01-28; this observation covers 2027-Q2. Sep 9, 20261,528,100,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We are raising our full year adjusted EPS guidance by over 10% to reflect year-to-date operating performance, additional share repurchases, refunds of tariffs previously paid, and the terms of the new consumer credit agreement."” “"Looking forward to full year Fiscal '27, we are raising the midpoint of guidance to reflect Q1 performance and Q2 momentum.” Revenue was $1.392 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$12.30 → $13.63 · observed estimates
$6.94B → $6.99B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $12.30 | $6,938,880,668 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $12.30 | $6,938,880,668 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $12.30 | $6,938,949,483 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $12.30 | $6,938,949,483 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $12.30 | $6,938,949,483 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $12.30 | $6,938,949,483 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $12.30 | $6,938,949,483 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $12.32 | $6,938,954,416 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $12.32 | $6,938,954,416 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $12.32 | $6,938,954,416 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $12.32 | $6,938,954,416 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $12.32 | $6,938,954,416 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $12.32 | $6,938,954,416 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $12.32 | $6,938,954,416 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $12.32 | $6,938,954,416 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $12.32 | $6,938,954,416 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $12.32 | $6,938,954,416 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $12.32 | $6,938,954,416 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $12.32 | $6,938,954,416 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $12.32 | $6,938,954,416 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $12.32 | $6,938,954,416 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $12.32 | $6,938,954,416 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $12.32 | $6,938,954,416 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $12.32 | $6,938,954,416 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $12.32 | $6,938,954,416 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $12.32 | $6,938,954,416 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $12.32 | $6,938,954,416 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $12.32 | $6,938,954,416 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $12.32 | $6,938,954,416 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $12.32 | $6,938,954,416 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $12.33 | $6,940,520,607 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $12.34 | $6,940,815,773 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $12.34 | $6,940,815,773 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $12.34 | $6,940,815,773 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $12.34 | $6,940,815,773 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $12.34 | $6,940,815,773 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $12.34 | $6,940,815,773 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $12.34 | $6,940,815,773 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $12.34 | $6,940,815,773 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $12.34 | $6,940,815,773 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $12.34 | $6,940,815,773 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $12.34 | $6,940,815,773 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $12.34 | $6,941,199,729 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $12.34 | $6,941,199,729 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $12.34 | $6,941,199,729 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $12.34 | $6,941,199,729 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $13.18 | $6,980,462,513 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $13.61 | $7,000,043,425 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $13.62 | $6,995,289,083 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $13.62 | $6,995,289,083 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $13.62 | $6,995,289,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $13.74 | $6,998,459,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $13.74 | $6,998,459,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $13.74 | $6,998,459,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $13.74 | $6,998,459,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $13.74 | $6,998,459,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $13.74 | $6,998,459,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $13.74 | $6,998,459,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $13.74 | $6,998,459,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $13.74 | $6,998,459,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $13.74 | $6,998,459,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $13.74 | $6,998,459,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $13.74 | $6,998,459,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $13.74 | $6,998,459,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $13.74 | $6,998,459,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $13.74 | $6,998,456,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $13.74 | $6,998,456,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $13.74 | $6,998,456,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $13.74 | $6,998,456,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $13.74 | $6,998,456,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $13.74 | $6,998,456,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $13.74 | $6,998,456,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $13.74 | $6,998,456,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $13.74 | $6,998,456,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $13.74 | $6,998,456,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $13.74 | $6,998,456,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $13.74 | $6,998,456,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $13.74 | $6,998,456,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $13.74 | $6,998,456,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $13.74 | $6,998,456,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $13.74 | $6,998,456,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $13.74 | $6,998,456,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $13.74 | $6,998,456,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $13.74 | $6,998,456,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $13.74 | $6,998,456,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $13.74 | $6,998,456,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $13.74 | $6,998,456,083 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $13.63 | $6,991,459,247 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $13.63 | $6,991,459,247 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $13.63 | $6,991,459,247 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $13.63 | $6,991,459,247 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $13.63 | $6,991,459,247 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $13.63 | $6,991,459,247 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $13.63 | $6,991,459,247 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $13.63 | $6,991,459,247 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $13.63 | $6,991,459,247 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $13.63 | $6,991,459,247 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $13.63 | $6,991,459,247 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $13.63 | $6,991,459,247 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $13.63 | $6,991,459,247 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $13.63 | $6,991,459,247 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $13.63 | $6,991,459,247 | 5 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 1, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.