Signet Jewelers (SIG)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$128.40+7.99%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SIG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 0 industry peers
SIG — officer change
Dated 2026-11-05
The filing describes the amendment and restatement of a deferred compensation plan, which is a compensatory arrangement rather than a change in management personnel.
Why it matters: Tariff refunds added about $15M to Q2 gross margin. Signet's FY27 plan includes about $30M in refunds, so later results can test that support.
Worry ifSignet reports about $30M in FY27 tariff refunds, as listed in its guidance assumptions.
Less concerning ifSignet reports less than $30M in FY27 tariff refunds or removes refunds from its guidance assumptions.
Why it matters: Signet raised its full-year sales range after two quarters of growth. Q3 results will test holiday demand.
Supportive ifOn December 1, Signet reports Q3 same-store sales growth above 0%, within or above its -1% to 2% range.
Worry ifQ3 same-store sales fall below -1%, the low end of its range.
Why it matters: Signet lifted its EBITDA range to $730M-$800M. The next report can show whether earnings are tracking toward that higher range.
Supportive ifSignet keeps its FY27 adjusted EBITDA range at $730M-$800M or raises it on December 1.
Worry ifSignet cuts the FY27 adjusted EBITDA range below $730M.
Why it matters: The consumer spending backdrop is mixed. The sector read says revenue is shrinking, while recent data hints that trend may change.
Watch forThe November 17 U.S. retail sales report shows positive month-over-month growth.
Also watch forThe November 17 U.S. retail sales report shows negative month-over-month growth.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$155 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $458 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,000 loss on $10,000 · 30.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The renewed deal runs through 2035 and adds customer tools. Signet counts $30M-$40M in FY27 sales and gross margin from it.
Supportive ifSignet reports $30M-$40M in FY27 sales and gross margin from the new credit deal, in line with its stated range.
Worry ifSignet reports less than $30M in FY27 sales and gross margin from the deal, or says the deal's gains are delayed.