Signet Jewelers (SIG)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$85.30+4.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLuxury GoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SIG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -29.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 1.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 30.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers
SIG — director transition
Dated 2026-07-02
Director — André Branch: Mr. Branch resigned as a director of the Board, effective immediately.
Why it matters: Improving revenue growth is key for Signet to meet its goals. It shows the company is gaining traction.
Supportive ifRevenue growth exceeds 4% year over year in the next earnings report.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 4% year over year in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Completing the buyback plan signals strong capital allocation and may boost share price.
Supportive ifThe $50 million share repurchase plan is complete.
Worry ifThere is a delay or cancellation of the share repurchase plan.
Why it matters: A higher EPS forecast shows confidence in making money and growing.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS guidance raised above $11.00.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS guidance is now below $9.20.
Why it matters: This transition could affect revenue and brand perception. Positive results would support growth strategies.
Watch forSales from the James Allen brand transition show minimal revenue loss.
Also watch forSales from the James Allen brand show a big revenue drop of over $80 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$194 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $453 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,000 loss on $10,000 · 30.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop raises worries about cash flow. It also questions how well the company runs.
Worry ifCash flow from operations reported below $150 million in Q2.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations reported above $175 million in Q2.
Why it matters: This range shows if Signet is growing in a tough retail market. It shows how well the company is following its plan.
Supportive ifSame store sales growth reported within the range of 0.5% to 2.5%.
Worry ifSame store sales growth reported below 0.5%.
Why it matters: This range shows if Signet is on track to improve profitability. It reflects the company's ability to manage costs and grow earnings.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA reported within the range of $655M to $745M.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was below $655M.
Why it matters: Exceeding this target shows strong cash flow. This helps return money to shareholders and keeps the company healthy.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported above $500M for FY26.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $500M for FY26.
Why it matters: Flat or falling inventory means good management and can show strong sales. It shows how well the company is adjusting to the market.
Supportive ifInventory levels were flat or down compared to past quarters.
Worry ifInventory levels were rising a lot.