Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
SIGA Technologies, Inc. (SIGA)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-05
$2.97-5.71%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.08 → 1.08 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SIGA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improve earnings per share to at least $1.05 in FY27 | A supporting condition in SIGA Technologies, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=1.05 USD_PER_SHARE. | Intact | EPS falls below $1.05 in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SIGA is a specialized pharmaceutical company whose business depends on government procurement and deliveries of TPOXX, its smallpox treatment. The long-term thesis is intact, with strong recent financial performance, but execution risk remains elevated and the evidence supports only medium confidence.
The valuation is described as stretched, with a durable premium versus peers and an expectations gap of 0.19. That suggests the market already reflects some confidence in lasting business strength, though the evidence does not show that the full combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence is priced in.
Near-term revenue can vary sharply with delivery timing: reported revenue rose from $6.2 million in 2026-Q1 to $41.0 million in 2026-Q2. SIGA delivered about $24 million of IV TPOXX to the U.S. stockpile and about $13 million of oral TPOXX internationally in Q2, while new contract revenue remains limited in the evidence. A guidance cut would be a meaningful risk, although management’s stated priorities show continued focus on deliveries, contracts, and international sales.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on completing the IV TPOXX delivery goal, securing new procurement orders, and sustaining international oral TPOXX sales. A weaker jobs trend could increase recession concerns across cyclical healthcare names, while continued strong results and guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum.
For the 1-to-3-year view, SIGA’s operating thesis remains intact, but uneven delivery timing, limited disclosed new contract revenue, and stretched expectations make execution important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| SIGA aims to deliver $26 million in IV TPOXX revenue by Q3 2026. |
| Intact |
| Revenue from IV TPOXX falls below $26M by Q3 2026 |
Revenue: $41.002M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=26 USD_MILLIONS. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 202641,002,253 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve about 45% revenue growth in next fiscal year | Analysts expect revenue to grow about 45% next year. | Broken | Revenue growth falls below 44.5% in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.05 → $1.08 · observed estimates
$0.16B → $0.16B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.05 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.05 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.05 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.05 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.05 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.05 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.05 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.05 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.05 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.05 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.05 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.05 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.05 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.05 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.05 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.05 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.05 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.05 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.05 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.05 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.05 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.08 | $162,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.