SIGA Technologies, Inc. (SIGA)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.29+1.86%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SIGA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -37.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -55.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 24 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SIGA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-07
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, SIGA Technologies, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. Pursuant to General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information contained in, or incorporated into, this Item 2.02, including the Press Release, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as am…
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if SIGA's revenue is improving. It follows a recent earnings miss.
Watch forSIGA made over $10 million in revenue in Q2. This shows they are recovering.
Also watch forSIGA made less than $6 million in revenue in Q2. This shows they are still struggling.
Why it matters: New contracts would show SIGA's ability to grow its business and expand its market.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least one new procurement contract within the next quarter.
Worry ifNo new procurement contracts announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: This delivery is key for SIGA's revenue growth and meeting government contracts. It shows SIGA's ability to fulfill its commitments.
Supportive ifSIGA successfully delivers $26 million of IV TPOXX to the U.S. Government by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifSIGA fails to deliver the $26 million of IV TPOXX by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target shows SIGA's growth potential and demand for IV TPOXX.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue from IV TPOXX exceeds $26 million.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue from IV TPOXX falls below $20 million.
Why it matters: New contracts would indicate growth and stability for SIGA's business. It is a key priority.
Supportive ifLook for news about a new contract. It should be with a government or big client.
Worry ifNo new procurement contracts announced in the next six months.
Why it matters: A drop in cash could signal financial stress and impact operations.
Worry ifSIGA's cash and cash equivalents fall below $100 million by Q4 2026.
Less concerning ifSIGA maintains cash and cash equivalents above $100 million by Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Growing international sales can diversify revenue and reduce reliance on U.S. contracts. It shows market expansion.
Supportive ifSIGA sends more than $13 million of oral TPOXX to international customers in Q3 2026.
Worry ifSIGA does not send the $13 million of oral TPOXX to international customers in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: New contracts are essential for SIGA's future revenue. They show the company's growth potential and market demand.
Supportive ifSIGA announces at least one new procurement contract for TPOXX within the next few months.
Worry ifSIGA fails to secure any new procurement contracts in the next few months.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$170 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $434 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,531 loss on $10,000 · 65.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.